So Nick versus Nigel is on but it should be on national TV not LBC

So Nick versus Nigel is on but it should be on national TV not LBC

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Ladbrokes open debate betting to be settled on a voodoo poll!! Well done to Nick Clegg and Nigel Farage for agreeing to a debate ahead of the European elections. This will certainly add fizz to the Euro Elections and could boost turnout beyond the 35% of last time. Given Nick Clegg’s position and his party’s numbers in the polls the challenge was a smart move and will help the LDs in its efforts to position itself as the party of…

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Why at 40-1 John Kerry is worth a punt for the 2016 Democratic party nomination

Why at 40-1 John Kerry is worth a punt for the 2016 Democratic party nomination

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John Kerry 2016 pic.twitter.com/hktNEskffM — PolPics (@PolPics) February 19, 2014 He could be ideally placed if his Middle East peace plan succeeds The first thing I did on my return last night from an intensive tour of Israel and Palestine was to place a bet at 50/1 with Ladbrokes on the defeated 2004 presidential candidate, John Kerry, for the Democratic party nomination in the 2016 White House race. Alas the bookie has now cut the price to 25/1 though you…

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Local By-Election Results : February 20th 2014

Local By-Election Results : February 20th 2014

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Canton on Cardiff (Lab Defence) Result: Lab 1,201 (42% -9%), Plaid 972 (34% +14%), Con 381 (13% +2%), Green 148 (5% -9%), TUSC 101 (4% +3%), Lib Dem 80 (3% +1%) Labour HOLD with a majority of 229 (8%) on a swing from Lab to Plaid of 11.5% Birstall, Wanlip on Charnwood (Con Defence) Result: Lib Dem 508 (40%), Con 419 (33%), Lab 355 (28%) Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative with a majority of 89 (7%)

Local By-Election Preview : February 20th 2014

Local By-Election Preview : February 20th 2014

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  Canton on Cardiff (Lab Defence) Result of last election to council (2012): Labour 46, Liberal Democrats 16, Conservative 7, Independents 3, Plaid Cymru 2, Heath Independents 1 (Labour overall majority of 17) Result of last election (2012): Emboldened denotes elected Labour 2,230, 2,130, 2,128 (51%) Plaid Cymru 910, 837, 824 (20%) Greens 730, 564, 503 (14%) Conservatives 505, 468, 426 (11%) Liberal Democrats 118, 98, 84 (2%) Socialist Labour Party 106 (1%) Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition 90 (1%)…

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Will Farage accept Clegg’s challenge?

Will Farage accept Clegg’s challenge?

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And will it help Clegg and the Lib Dems?   This morning Nick Clegg has challenged Nigel Farage to a live debate on Britain’s membership of the European Union before May’s elections. I wonder if this the new approach is to do with the fact that senior Lib Dem MPs such as Tim Farron are publicly warning that the party’s “very presence in the European Parliament could be at stake” as it contends with poor opinion poll ratings that consistently put the junior coalition party behind UKIP. Every…

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The first Indyref conducted after Osborne’s intervention is out

The first Indyref conducted after Osborne’s intervention is out

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And it’s great news for the Supporters of Yes as No’s lead slumps from 20% to 9% with Survation. As Mike correctly forecast the Edinburgh confrontation over the currency might be just what the YES campaign wants, as Yes goes up 6% and no goes down 5%, the changes are from the Survation poll carried out at the end of January. (Note the reason why the changes don’t net off to zero is because of rounding) The fieldwork was Monday and Tuesday…

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Looking ahead to the 2016 US Presidential Election

Looking ahead to the 2016 US Presidential Election

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The Republican Party Nominee My strategy has been to lay Chris Christie, even before his bridge problems. Some in the Republican Party have never forgiven him for his hug of President Obama during Hurricane Sandy and that’s influenced my thinking. But on who to back, I followed Mike’s tip to back Rand Paul at 50/1, he is now trading as low as 7/1 which makes this tip very profitable for anyone who followed it. The favourite is Marco Rubio, as the Senator…

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YouGov asked people to predict what the national voting intention figures would be at the end of 2014. Here are the results

YouGov asked people to predict what the national voting intention figures would be at the end of 2014. Here are the results

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YouGov recently ran a competition, open from January 17th-31st, that asked participants to estimate the end-of-year voting intention figures to win a prize, after Steve Thompson won last year’s competition by guessing each party’s position exactly (except for UKIP – he was 2 points high). The same question was then asked to the general public in a nationally representative survey. The predictions, averaged together, give a window into what direction British people see the winds of political change heading this…

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