Budget betting : How long? What will he say? What colour tie? How many sips of water? etc

Budget betting : How long? What will he say? What colour tie? How many sips of water? etc

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Sporting Index budget spread markets SportingIndex http://t.co/U2fOqryMuA budget spread betting pic.twitter.com/DvU3YWbYIi — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 19, 2014 William Hill Some of the Budget betting specials from William Hill http://t.co/3DhorKEjnt pic.twitter.com/97abVvpwYz — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 19, 2014 Ladbrokes Ladbrokes http://t.co/5ytVwnr30K budget buzzword bingo pic.twitter.com/ppnX98eJ4z — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 19, 2014 PaddyPower The PaddyPower http://t.co/45A6m2316P first budget cliche betting odds pic.twitter.com/CDwdfwvTfn — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 19, 2014

Nighthawks is now open

Nighthawks is now open

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Home of the web’s best political conversation Why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks. If you’re a lurker, why not change the Status Quo,and become a poster. Don’t worry, delurking won’t lead you to the Wild Side of Life, after your first post, you’ll want to post Again and Again. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant link) Budget 2014: the…

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George Osborne moves into the favourite slot at Betfair to succeed Cameron as CON leader

George Osborne moves into the favourite slot at Betfair to succeed Cameron as CON leader

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Betfair boost for Osborne ahead of budget Based on last trades punters make him favourite for next CON leader pic.twitter.com/TvpMG9rx0U — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 18, 2014 Not convinced – I still reckon Hamond Above are the latest trades on Betfair’s Next CON leader market and as can be seen there is a new favourite – George Osborne. This has probably come out of the recent Michael Gove initiatives which are seen by many as a way of undermining Boris. Trading…

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On the eve of the budget a Survation poll restricted to those in employment has LAB lead of 17 percent

On the eve of the budget a Survation poll restricted to those in employment has LAB lead of 17 percent

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There’s a new Survation poll out this morning where the sample is restricted to those in employment either full-time or part-time. It was commissioned by Unions 21 but the target sample was all those working not just union members. There is nothing to compare this with in the past so it is hard to say whether there is a trend or not. Of those sampled 73% said they’d seen wages fall relative to the cost of living in last 2…

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Gove gets a rollocking from Dave over over comments about the influence of old-Etonians at the top of the Tory party

Gove gets a rollocking from Dave over over comments about the influence of old-Etonians at the top of the Tory party

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Gove's comments about Etonians at top of the Tory party. The head is not amused. See http://t.co/LfLHY4RqS8 pic.twitter.com/7nK9l06xmq — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 17, 2014 The Speccie’s Isabel Hardman has the story. The only problems for Number 10 is that this keeps the story running and it gives the impression that there are splits at the top. Maybe, as was being suggested at the weekend, senior Tories have given up on GE2015 and the focus now is on who will succeed…

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Populus: LAB has 31 percent lead amongst public sector workers

Populus: LAB has 31 percent lead amongst public sector workers

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The above finding from today’s Popuus online poll is not surprsing particuarly as public sector worker have been facing many of the impacts of the coalition’s efforts to reduce the deficit. I’ve not been able to find comparative GE2010 data from Populus but without success. Ipsos-MORI, though, reported in April 2010 that public sector workers split CON 33/ LAB 22/ LD 37/ UKIP 2. This is not directly comparable with Populus but perhaps does provide a pointer. Mike Smithson 2004-2014:…

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On this day before Osborne’s 2012 Budget ICM had the Tories 3 points ahead, the last time any poll had a CON lead

On this day before Osborne’s 2012 Budget ICM had the Tories 3 points ahead, the last time any poll had a CON lead

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ICM Guardian poll March 2012 And in this March 2012 poll UKIP was on just 1% If it should be that the Conservatives are not in government after the next general election then a lot of the blame will be attributed to the March 2012 budget and the way the government reacted in the weeks and months that followed. Until that point in the electoral cycle, as the ICM poll for March 2012 illustrates, the Tories were doing quite well…

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Farage : “I want to fight a marginal” : The possible choices

Farage : “I want to fight a marginal” : The possible choices

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During today’s interview with Andrew Neil on the Sunday Politics, the issue of where Nigel Farage wants to stand at the next election cropped up again and for the first time he gave an answer “I want to fight a marginal” he declared. Now, there has been a lot of discussion in the past about what constitutes a marginal (with experts ranging in opinions from a 5% lead to a 20% lead), but my own personal thoughts are that a…

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