The betting seems to be lagging behind the polls This morning I made my first serious Scottish IndyRef bets and my money went on YES. This is not a prediction but my assessment of how I think the betting will move in the coming weeks and months. There has been a clear tightening in the polls and if this continues I can see the YES price moving in with NO moving out. The prices, seen in the chart, are quite…
Times fromt page story on polling reaction to the budget pic.twitter.com/tvFnasDwtE — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 21, 2014 Tonight's YouGov/Sun poll, the first to be carried out wholly after the budget has CON 34 LAB 39 LD 10 UKIP 10 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 20, 2014 Voters might have already made their minds up about GE2015 and there’ll be little shifting As can be seen from the Times front page the first Budget polling by YouGov finds strong support from voters for the…
Wroxham on Broadland (Liberal Democrat defence) Result of last election (2011): Conservatives 34, Liberal Democrats 12, Labour 1 (Conservative majority of 21) Result of ward at last election (2011): Emboldened denotes elected Liberal Democrats 985, 829 Conservatives 741, 537 Labour 227 Greens 197 Candidates duly nominated: Alex Cassam (Lib Dem), Malcolm Kemp (Lab), David Moreland (UKIP), Fran Whymark (Con) Gamston on Rushcliffe (Conservative defence) Result of last election (2011): Conservatives 34, Liberal Democrats 6, Labour 5, Independents 3, Green 2…
The CON bingo poster came from party chairman Grant Shapps See this from his Twitter page pic.twitter.com/ekOCIBa3a9 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 20, 2014 Both resonate because they reinforce perceptions We all remember the famous Liam Byrne hand-over note in May 2010 telling his successor at the Treasury that there’s no money left. That struck home because it touched a widespread view of the LAB approach to public spending. The Grant Shapps Tweet poster is damaging because it touches directly on…
The Mail front page dominated by the budget pic.twitter.com/12d4hmPeqK — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 20, 2014 Time to be putting more money on the blues winning the Euros Downing Street will be delighted with the coverage that Osborne’s budget is getting in the papers this morning and my view is that we could start to see a change in the media narrative. Suddenly the pressure that the savings changes put on the UKIP switchers will be become the story and…
Everything is dependent on turnout YouGov asked a likelihood to vote question which moved UKIP into second place and saw LAB up 2. This looks set to be low turnout election which presents a huge challenge for the pollsters. They might accurately reflect the pattern of support as is being told to them but everything depends on whether people actually do take the trouble to exercise their vote. YouGov found that 38% said they were certain to vote which was…
As has been pointed out many times before the segment of the electorate that has seen the biggest switch to UKIP is the one that the Tories always banked on – the oldies. Last month’s Populus aggregate found that the current UKIP support base has those aged 55+ accounting, as the chart shows, for nearly 60%. The biggest group of switchers based on past vote were 2010 Conservatives who now make up 45% of the UKIP support base. Oldies are…
Will today’s announcements help CON get any closer? With just over a year to go before the general election today’s budget is key to Tory chances. This morning’s news on employment and the general better economic pointers. These, though, have yet to work themselves through in the polling. Political gamblers are taking a more bullish view of the party’s chances as can be seen from the latest trade data, featured in the chart above, from Betfair. I’m putting up this…