As has been pointed out many times before the segment of the electorate that has seen the biggest switch to UKIP is the one that the Tories always banked on – the oldies. Last month’s Populus aggregate found that the current UKIP support base has those aged 55+ accounting, as the chart shows, for nearly 60%.
The biggest group of switchers based on past vote were 2010 Conservatives who now make up 45% of the UKIP support base.
Oldies are much more likely to be on the electoral register, to turnout out to vote and, in the past to vote Conservative. If the Cameron is to have any chance in thirteen months time he needs a lot of these switchers back.
The budget gives the Conservatives a powerful argument and my guess is that it will work to some extent. But the scale of the electoral challenge is such that they need a bigger movement than is likely from the budget measures.
To put it into context the Tories will still be losing seats to Labour even if they have a vote lead of 6%. They need a huge swing going well above than just winning back switchers to UKIP.
So yes I do thing that Osborne’s measures will help but there’s still a mountain to climb