The political role of the purples: As a stalking horse

The political role of the purples: As a stalking horse

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Corporeal on UKIP It’s reasonably common, in these cynical times that we live in, to hear someone dismissively remark that politicians are mainly interested in power. It’s a comment that is both often true and also the basic point of politicians. Politics itself is essentially the exercise of power in society in all its various shapes and forms and the proper use of that power is what politicians are fundamentally contesting. It is less a question of how the world…

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Even with poll leads there are still two massive hurdles for the Tories: LAB’s inherent electoral advantage and LD stickiness

Even with poll leads there are still two massive hurdles for the Tories: LAB’s inherent electoral advantage and LD stickiness

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Far more CON votes are wasted where it doesn’t matter The “boundaries” has become a misleading shorthand to describe the challenge the Tories face with the way the general election electoral system operates under first past the post. The above three part interactive chart presents different elements where LAB has an inbuilt advantage. Firstly, from the GE2010 outcome we see that a much higher proportion of the blue vote gets wasted in seats won by 3rd parties Secondly we see…

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The LDs would be fools to choose Cable over Alexander as shadow chancellor at GE2015

The LDs would be fools to choose Cable over Alexander as shadow chancellor at GE2015

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There’s a little debate going on within the LDs over whether Vince Cable or Danny Alexander should by the party’s “shadow chancellor” at GE 2015. Both are cabinet ministers – Alexander is chief secretary to Treasury while Cable is the business secretary. My old Oxford colleague and leading Lib Dem blogger, Stephen Tall, is arguing the case for Cable while others in the party say it should be Alexander. The latter are right for four main reasons:- First the yellows…

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Politicalbetting.com: Ten years old today and still going strong

Politicalbetting.com: Ten years old today and still going strong

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Thank you for your continued support It was on March 23rd 2004 that PB began – ten years ago today and I thought that this should be something that we should mark and celebrate. It began simply because I like talking about and making forecasts on electoral outcomes and I wanted a platform where I can could engage with like minded people. My son, Robert, was the catalyst and he’s played a huge part over the past decade handling the…

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UPDATED: Both YouGov and Survation report that CON almost closing the gap

UPDATED: Both YouGov and Survation report that CON almost closing the gap

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Sunday Times pic.twitter.com/otaZJZGfbw — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 22, 2014 Survation finds CON now 2nd place for Euro Elections UPDATE: UKIP slip to 3rd place in Survation Euro2014 poll Not quite cross-over but nearly there Tonight’s Survation poll for the Mail on Sunday provides a massive boost for the Tories following the budget. The pollster, which pioneered prompting for Farage’s party, has traditionally had the biggest shares for UKIP. That’s down 3 to 15% while the Tories jump 4. The…

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A timely reminder from Populus of how little most people follow political events

A timely reminder from Populus of how little most people follow political events

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Case study this week’s Budget Great info from @PopulusPolls on what people recall was in the budget pic.twitter.com/MHD11Jq7xq — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 22, 2014 I like this chart because it reinforces a point that I make a lot – that most voters pay little attention to politics even big events like this week’s budget. There was wall-to-wall TV coverage on the day followed by extensive reports and analysis in the bulletins. In the Thursday papers seven of the nationals splashed…

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Don’t bet on a Tory Euro-win unless you expect a Blue landslide in 2015

Don’t bet on a Tory Euro-win unless you expect a Blue landslide in 2015

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EP2014 betting pic.twitter.com/J0flbsW18s — PolPics (@PolPics) March 21, 2014 Governments rarely win interim elections William Hague was not a very successful leader of the opposition.  Against Blair’s prolonged political honeymoon, Hague’s Conservatives were regularly so far behind in the polls as to be out of sight.  Not only did they fail to gain a single seat during the parliament but they actually went backwards, losing Romsey to the Lib Dems. However, in the midst of that constant popular battering, he…

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Local By-Election Results: March 20th 2014

Local By-Election Results: March 20th 2014

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Wroxham on Broadland (Liberal Democrat defence) Result: Lib Dem 482 (48%), Con 341 (34%), UKIP 112 (11%), Lab 63 (6%) Liberal Democrat HOLD with a majority of 141 (14%) Gamston on Rushcliffe (Conservative defence) Result: Con 444 (44%), Lab 218 (22%), UKIP 173 (17%), Lib Dem 170 (17%) Conservative HOLD with a majority of 226 (22%) Turnout: 26% Cellarhead on Staffordshire, Moorlands (Staffordshire Independent defence) Result: Con 175 (32%), Lab 132 (24%), Staffs Ind 119 (22%), UKIP 105 (19%), Lib…

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