The big question is whether and how the debate impacts on voting in the Euros and GE2015

The big question is whether and how the debate impacts on voting in the Euros and GE2015

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Did both leaders achieve their goals? The experience of US presidential debates and, of course, the British GE2010 is that “winning” the debate is not necessarily a good pointer to its impact on voting. For Nigel Farage and Nick Clegg the critical upcoming election is on May 22nd – the Euros. Farage has built up expectations about a UKIP win on votes while at current polling levels it is not inconceivable that the LDs could lose all their MEPs. Both…

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The post Nick v Nigel debate reaction

The post Nick v Nigel debate reaction

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The YouGov poll on who won the debate is out.   BREAKING: FARAGE WINS. Nigel beats Nick 57-36 – @YouGov/Sun poll: http://t.co/HFiBvZJLiG pic.twitter.com/iLXcPej6D5 — Tom Newton Dunn (@tnewtondunn) March 26, 2014 Who won the debate between Farage & Clegg. Con voters: Farage 69%, Clegg 27%, Unsure 4%. Lab voters Clegg 51%, Farage 42%, Unsure 5% — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) March 26, 2014 Who won the debate between Farage & Clegg. LD voters: Clegg 77%, Farage 20%, Unsure 3% UKIP voters:…

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The Maggie Thatcher 1979 experience: Why leader and “best PM” ratings are not necessarily the best guide to how people will vote

The Maggie Thatcher 1979 experience: Why leader and “best PM” ratings are not necessarily the best guide to how people will vote

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CON GE2015 hopes are too reliant on Miliband’s poor ratings The Times is leading on polling about Ed Miliband’s PM ratings which are not good for Labour. There is no doubt that on almost every measure when put up against Cameron he does worse – sometimes by quite a margin. But you have to put these sorts of numbers into context. The PM ratings trend chart above is from the last general election that the Tories were returned to power…

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Ladbrokes open betting on all 57 LD seats and make the yellows favourites to hold on to 35

Ladbrokes open betting on all 57 LD seats and make the yellows favourites to hold on to 35

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It’ll be interesting to follow the changing prices This afternoon Ladbrokes put up betting markets in every one of the 57 seats that the Lib Dems will be defending at GE2015. In 35 of them, all but one of them defences against the Tories, the Ladbrokes opening prices make the LDs favourite and in a further three Clegg’s party is join favourite. From a quick look down the list the MPs most likely to be still there on May 8th…

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If you are betting on cross-over in Q1 2014 then there are only four more YouGovs remaining

If you are betting on cross-over in Q1 2014 then there are only four more YouGovs remaining

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How the budget moves fit with the overall trend Quite a few PBers, I know, have been betting on the PaddyPower market on when there will be a crossover in the five times a week YouGov polls for News International. Given what’s happened since the budget then their hopes might be riding high but time is running out. For there to be a CON lead only four more surveys remain. Is that going to happen? Clearly the daily ratings can…

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LAB lead down but Tories trail by 5 percent in first phone poll since the budget

LAB lead down but Tories trail by 5 percent in first phone poll since the budget

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At last for LAB a poll with a lead bigger than 1 After three online pollsters had reported LAB leads down to just one percent there’ll perhaps be some relief at Miliband HQ that tonight’s ComRes phone poll for the Indy has the margin down to 5% But the trend is the same. In February the gap was 8%. Asked which of the two biggest parties was most likely to keep the economy growing, 47% say CON and 36% LAB….

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