One Year To Go: How do Dave and Ed compare to their predecessors

One Year To Go: How do Dave and Ed compare to their predecessors

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With one year to go, I thought it would be useful to track how Ed and Dave compare to their predecessors one year before a General Election. I’ve been using the ratings from Ipsos-Mori that go back nearly forty years and are considered to be the Gold Standards of leader ratings.     Looking at the Leader of the Opposition net ratings, sometimes the figures speak for themselves. Only Leaders of the Opposition  with net positive ratings one year have…

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PB Euro election competition winner

PB Euro election competition winner

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Congratulations to Wulfrun_Phil to winning the competition, thanks to everyone who took part, and a big thank you to Mark Hopkins to setting up the website for the entries. Just a note, on the above picture, I’ve hidden the individual differences for each party column (so not to make the above picture unreadable) the total diff column is the sum of these individual columns. A link to the spreadsheet with everyone’s entries and rankings is available here. TSE

The first Newark by-election opinion poll is out

The first Newark by-election opinion poll is out

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The Tories are ahead in this poll for the Sun by Survation, but down nearly 18% since the general election, but with a strong campaign, I can see either UKIP or Labour winning, the fact that UKIP are up over 24% since the General Election, compared to 4.7% that Labour are up since the election, shows the momentum is with UKIP. The normal caveats that this just one poll, this raises an interesting dilemma for Labour, and their supporters? Do…

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It looks like mentioning Ed’s name is no longer a drag for Labour

It looks like mentioning Ed’s name is no longer a drag for Labour

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  As part of their polling for The Times, YouGov asked “Imagine that at the next election the party leaders remained David Cameron for the Conservatives, Ed Miliband for Labour and Nick Clegg for the Liberal Democrats. How would you vote?” Normally they ask “If there were a general election tomorrow, which party would you vote for? Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat, Scottish Nationalist/Plaid cymru, some other party, would not vote, don’t know” Now the first thing that caught my eye…

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A masterclass in how not to conduct a political assasination

A masterclass in how not to conduct a political assasination

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New PB thread on Lord Oakeshott’s polls. http://t.co/5G50n29GOC pic.twitter.com/dXXotaSaKi — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) May 28, 2014   Lord Oakeshott resigned today from the Lib Dems following the publication of those polls. He said “I am sure the party is heading for disaster if it keeps Nick Clegg; and I must not get in the way of the many brave Liberal Democrats fighting for change” It also emerged there were other polls, that unsurprisingly showed Danny Alexander losing his seat, but…

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Last Thursday’s local elections: Andy JS’s annual compilation of the actual vote totals from every ward that was fought

Last Thursday’s local elections: Andy JS’s annual compilation of the actual vote totals from every ward that was fought

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UKIP winning almost one in six of all voters Thanks to Andy JS who has done a brilliant job collecting and recording the data from each of the thousands of individual seats that were fought on May 22nd. This is the second year he has done this and provides a vital resource. Generally he has had to go into every local authority website and transpose the detailed results from each individual ward onto his spreadsheet. These figures differ considerably from…

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Lib Dem voters sticking with Nick Clegg according to new YouGov-Times poll

Lib Dem voters sticking with Nick Clegg according to new YouGov-Times poll

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After several days of pressure on Nick Clegg new YouGov polling for the Times suggests that most current party supporters want him to remain as leader. Even amongst those who voted for the party in 2010 he has a lead. The point, of course, is that those still supporting the party are likely to be loyalists. Amongst all sampled, however, 42% say he shouldn’t remain with 30% saying he should. As to whether the party would do better being led…

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