Lord Ashcroft’s Newark poll: Tories set to hold their first by-election while in office since 1989

Lord Ashcroft’s Newark poll: Tories set to hold their first by-election while in office since 1989

Comments 0 Comment

UPDATE “Spiral of Silence adjustment gives 4% boost to CON lead With just three days to go the Lord Ashcroft Newark poll is out and has the Tories with a comfortable margin. The figures are in the chart about together with the changes on GE10. This look very easy for the blues although the poll paints a very different picture from the Survation Sun survey on Friday. Which one’s right? But bad news for the blues in latest Ashcroft national…

Read More Read More

From the latest Ashcroft Marginals polling that should have attracted the attention it deserves

From the latest Ashcroft Marginals polling that should have attracted the attention it deserves

Comments 0 Comment

Breakdown from specific seats which each had 1,000 sample Preferred GE15 outcome in 26 seats from @LordAshcroft latest marginals polling pic.twitter.com/ZnXsgE7dT8 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 2, 2014 As we wait for this afternoon’s Newark poll from Lord Ashcroft I thought it worth going back to his massive marginals polling published the weekend before last. Because of the timing, on the Saturday after the local results but before the Euros, it got nothing like the attention it deserved. This was…

Read More Read More

Guest Slot: All publicity is good publicity? Maybe not when Ed Miliband is on TV

Guest Slot: All publicity is good publicity? Maybe not when Ed Miliband is on TV

Comments 0 Comment

UK General Elections, we are told have become increasingly presidential. And how each party leader comes across, particularly on Television, is important. Ed Miliband has faced criticism for his style and communication skills – It’s probably fair to comment that he’s not a natural TV performer. But what if it’s slightly worse than that? What if his television appearances have, overall, a slight negative effect on Labour’s vote share in the polls? We should look at the evidence – What…

Read More Read More

If the pollsters are understating UKIP like at previous by-elections then Newark is absolutely neck and neck

If the pollsters are understating UKIP like at previous by-elections then Newark is absolutely neck and neck

Comments 0 Comment

Traditional methodology might not be applicable Tomorrow afternoon Lord Ashcroft is publishing his poll for Thursday’s Newark by-election which will be the only the second survey that’s been carried in what’s turning out to be a humdinger of a fight between UKIP and the Tories. Both have got historical baggage that a win could help them shed. For you have to go back to William Hague’s victory in the N Yorks seat of Richmond in 1989 to find the last…

Read More Read More

This ComRes poll suggests UKIP will not be fading at the General Election

This ComRes poll suggests UKIP will not be fading at the General Election

Comments 0 Comment

TELEGRAPH: UKIP vote no flash in the pan #tomorrowspaperstoday #BBCPapers pic.twitter.com/L1bqPLSZeD — Neil Henderson (@hendopolis) May 30, 2014 ComRes have polled on behalf of UKIP donor Paul Sykes asking what UKIP voters in the Euros would do at the next General Election, the telegraph reports that 37 per cent of UKIP voters said that they were “certain” to support the party at the general election. Another 49 per cent said that they were “likely” to do so, while 14 per…

Read More Read More

Lib Dem incumbency would be overwhelmed on current polling

Lib Dem incumbency would be overwhelmed on current polling

Comments 0 Comment

Their current national figures would see losses on the same scale as the local elections Cockroach-like.  That was Tim Farron’s description of Lib Dems’ resilience in withstanding a hostile climate.  The inference was that no matter how tough things might be across the country, where they have elected representatives, their vote would hold firm enough. He had a point: Lib Dem MPs and councillors have in the past proven notoriously difficult to shift due to local campaigning, popularity and hard…

Read More Read More

Ipsos-Mori Issues Index for May is out

Ipsos-Mori Issues Index for May is out

Comments 0 Comment

The Ipsos-Mori issues index is out for May. As Mike has noted in the past, “The Ipsos-MORI Issues Index is unique because the questioning is unprompted & is seen as best test of the salience of issues.” Largely it is no change for all voters.   @IpsosMORI issues Index for May (all voters) pic.twitter.com/0QMLVsk1ls — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) May 30, 2014 The issues through Kipper eyes.   @IpsosMORI issues Index for May (UKIP voters) pic.twitter.com/Qcvdx8LwBN — The Screaming Eagles…

Read More Read More