May’s PB polling average: the Establishment decline continues

May’s PB polling average: the Establishment decline continues

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The EP14 effect – A big boost for the non-Westminster parties The pageantry of the Queen’s Speech and the political debate following it returns those following British politics back to a safe and familiar comfort zone: everything looks much as it always has.  It’s almost as if last month never happened. Yet happen it did and the polling average simply reinforces the message sent in ballot boxes up and down the country: the public continued to move away from the…

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Newark: The final day of campaigning in a battle so important to both CON and UKIP

Newark: The final day of campaigning in a battle so important to both CON and UKIP

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Watch Shadsy of Ladbrokes in this clip Not long to go now and the polling stations will be opening in Newark for a by-election that, whatever the outcome, will make history. Either the Tories break their terrible record of losing every by-election defence while in office over the past 25 years or UKIP break their ongoing losing sequence and actually win a seat. The only possible other outcome that could spoil this is Labour but from all accounts they have…

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Theresa May moves up 15 points and now clear leader in ConHome poll on next party leader

Theresa May moves up 15 points and now clear leader in ConHome poll on next party leader

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This is a big blow to Boris It’s hard to see why there’s been such movement in the ConHome regular survey of party members’ views on who should be Dave’s successor. Maybe the rise of UKIP is polarising views in many less connected segments. One thing that strikes me is that with all the focus on the May 22nd elections and their aftermath Boris hasn’t been making the headlines in the way that he was. Best price on Theresa is…

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Christine Lagarde is 4-1 to be next President of the European Commission

Christine Lagarde is 4-1 to be next President of the European Commission

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The battle for Presidency of the EU is hotting up Yesterday it was reported by Reuters that: German Chancellor Angela Merkel has asked France whether it would be willing to put forward International Monetary Fund chief Christine Lagarde as president of the European Commission, two French sources briefed on the exchanges said. They said Merkel, Europe’s most powerful political leader, made the inquiry in a private conversation with French President Francois Hollande after European Parliament elections characterised by widespread anti-EU…

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Ladbrokes report “surge of money on UKIP” in Newark and no CON bets

Ladbrokes report “surge of money on UKIP” in Newark and no CON bets

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Newark: The Buttermarket. pic.twitter.com/mfLSoyfP7y — Roger Helmer (@RogerHelmerMEP) June 2, 2014 Newark UKIP backers defy the polls Local punters are queueing up to back UKIP at 6/1 to surprise the pollsters to win Thursday’s Newark by-election, according to Ladbrokes. The bookies reported that they had failed to take a single bet on the Tories in the town’s betting shops on Tuesday. Despite that, the Tories remain odds-on favourites to retain the seat in what has become a clear two-horse race….

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YouGov finds that people are a lot more negative and less positive about UKIP now compared with last Euro elections in 2009

YouGov finds that people are a lot more negative and less positive about UKIP now compared with last Euro elections in 2009

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It’s not all rosy for the purple team The pollster that came top in the EP14 polling accuracy table, YouGov, has issued comparative data about whether people feel positive or negative about UKIP compared with five years ago when they beat LAB for 2nd place in the Euro elections. The data is in the chart and probably reflects that voters are now treating UKIP a lot more seriously than they were five years ago. We’ve seen this trend in other…

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Why People Voted UKIP

Why People Voted UKIP

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As part of the poll conducted for UKIP donor Paul Sykes, ComRes asked How important was each of the following as a possible reason for your decision to vote UKIP at the European elections on Thursday? (Only those that replied 10/10 are shown – 10 being very important) Immigration, EU, Farage, Gay marriage? This chart shows the most important reasons people voted for UKIP at the Euros pic.twitter.com/hry389fUr4 — Tom Mludzinski (@tom_ComRes) June 2, 2014 As we can see, Tighter…

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Ipsos-Mori poll on Scottish Independence sees Yes cut No’s lead by 7 per cent

Ipsos-Mori poll on Scottish Independence sees Yes cut No’s lead by 7 per cent

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Ipsos-Mori have published their latest Indyref phone poll.  The fieldwork was after the Euros, from last Wednesday to this Sunday just gone, Ipsos-Mori say The latest poll for STV News shows that ‘Yes’ has gained ground since our last poll in February 2014. Among those certain to vote in the referendum 36% would vote Yes (up by 4 percentage points) while 54% would vote No (down by 3 points) and 10% are undecided (down by 1 point). Both sides will…

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