Lord Ashcroft’s latest weekly phone poll is out. @LordAshcroft latest Westminster VI poll, changes since last week Con 29 (nc), Lab 31 (-4), LD 8 (-1), UKIP 17 (+3) — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) May 27, 2014 Populus have published their bi-weekly online poll New Populus VI: Lab 36 (=); Cons 34 (=); LD 9 (=); UKIP 14 (=); Oth 8 (+1) Tables http://t.co/GvE36tpnBc — Populus (@PopulusPolls) May 27, 2014 Meanwhile Ipsos-Mori have some polling out, here are the…
Last week Labour beat the Tories in the local elections by just 1%, according to the Rallings and Thrasher NEV (national equivalent voteshare) calculation. This is the last set of locals before the general election. Is there anything we can divine from this performance? Yes, it looks like Labour will be soundly defeated next year. The following graph tells the tale (general elections bordered in white). We see that, going back to 1979, no party with such a minuscule lead…
The significance of private ICM polling on Clegg not just bad numbers but that it was commissioned by an LD supporter pic.twitter.com/ddaM77207O — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 27, 2014 But who is behind it and what’s the next step? Hopefully later today ICM will release the detailed data from the private polling that’s splashed by the Guardian this morning. The broad message of what’s been leaked is that the party stands to do worse in four key seats that it…
New PB thread on leaked private ICM polling showing Nick Clegg losing Sheffield Hallam. http://t.co/c8kw0erFTJ pic.twitter.com/f698czzOzf — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) May 26, 2014 If there’s one thing that gets people like us excited and interested is a leaked internal/private polling, especially ones conducted by ICM. The polling finds The electoral oblivion apparently confronting the Liberal Democrats as led by Nick Clegg was underscored on Monday by leaked opinion polls in four seats showing that the party will be wiped out. Commissioned by a…
Nick Clegg looking quite emotional on Sky. pic.twitter.com/V5G19ya7ci — Helen Lewis (@helenlewis) May 26, 2014 The former leader has the power to stop regicide Back in September 2012 at the Lib Dem Brighton conference Clegg announced the appointment of ex-leader, Paddy Ashdown as head of the party’s 2015 general election campaign. This has been discussed in terms of his ability to reach Labour tactical voters who are central to the party holding onto those seats where the Tories are in…
CON did better than virtually all the polls while Ukip did worse The broad trend was in line with what I’d predicted though my bets on Ukip not making it top place were losers. AIFE took about 2% in most regions where they stood Undoubtedly this cost Ukip votes. The 2% was exactly in line with my prediction. A dire, dire result for Lib Dems and Nick Clegg Who know what will happen? It looks as though YouGov were clear…
For the Lib Dems, it could be their worst nightmare, as Tim Farron talks about them having zero MEPs, whilst Doncaster is won by UKIP, David Herdson suggestion from last week isn’t so outlandish now is it? North East results: LAB 2 (+1) UKIP 1 (+1) CON 0 (-1) LD 0 (-1) Turnout 31% #Vote2014 — Sun Politics (@Sun_Politics) May 25, 2014 Eastern results: UKIP 3 (+1) CON 3 (NC) LAB 1 (NC) LD 0 (-1) Turnout: 35% #Vote2014 —…