The chances of a LAB majority have dropped by 10% since the budget according to Betfair punters

The chances of a LAB majority have dropped by 10% since the budget according to Betfair punters

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But Labour’s inherent electoral advantages could be being ignored Exactly 8 months today on April 1st 2015 the formal general election campaign will begin and my intention at the start of every month is to monitor betting prices on the Betfair exchange to see how the mood is changing. The chart above shows current latest trades on the firm’s GE2015 outcome market and has comparisons with what it was just before the March 2014 budget. As can be seen the…

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Harry Hayfield’s Local By-Election Preview: July 31st 2014

Harry Hayfield’s Local By-Election Preview: July 31st 2014

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Thurmaston on Charnwood (Con Defence) Result of last election to council (2011): Conservatives 33, Labour 16, British National Party 1, Liberal Democrats 1, Independent 1 (Conservative majority of 14) Result of last election in ward (2011): Emboldened denotes elected Conservative 1,473, 1,399, 1,309 Labour 1,306, 1,153, 1,058 Candidates duly nominated: Hanif Asmal (Con), Chris Canham (British Democrats), Stepgen Denhan (BNP), Tom Prior (UKIP), Ralph Raven (Lab) On the face of it Charnwood appears to be a Conservative area, however appearances…

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The GE2015 seat split based on the latest PaddyPower line betting

The GE2015 seat split based on the latest PaddyPower line betting

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If this was the outcome Cameron could sit tight We are going to see a lot of projected commons numbers like the ones in the chart above in the next ten months. What’s showing here are the buy levels for the three main parties on PaddyPower and as can be seen neither CON nor LAB would have a majority and would probably try to cobble together some deal to see themselves through. What the chart doesn’t show is that it’s…

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With Dave outclassing Ed in the ratings and the economy getting better how come CON’s behind in the polls?

With Dave outclassing Ed in the ratings and the economy getting better how come CON’s behind in the polls?

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Cameron retains his 17% lead with YouGov as best PM pic.twitter.com/ai1oNmBJ4N — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 31, 2014 Why are the Tories not in the lead? One of the ongoing mysteries is why CON continue to lag behind LAB in the voting intention polls. The economy is recovering and this is now being seen by voters. On top of that the Tories retain a solid lead over LAB as best party on the economy. We also have the Ed Miliband…

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Nighthawks is now open

Nighthawks is now open

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Home of the web’s best political conversation Why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB Night Hawks. If you’re Hungry Like The Wolf for news on politics and betting, you’ve come to the right place on Planet Earth for political betting. If you’ve always been a lurker, and have The Reflex not to post, Nighthawks gives you an opportunity to delurk, don’t worry, you won’t become Wild Boys or Wild Girls after posting. The…

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For YouGov trend spotting these are the best figures to watch not the daily polls

For YouGov trend spotting these are the best figures to watch not the daily polls

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The @YouGov monthly average Jan 2013 – June 2014. Figures for July out on Friday. pic.twitter.com/pEBBd634Cu — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 30, 2014 After the LAB lead dropped from 6% on Monday night to 1% last night there’s been a lot of discussion about the volatility of the firm’s out. In reality, of course, both of this week’s polls have been within the margin of error. The numbers I most look out for are above – the monthly averages which…

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There’s been no Glasgow games boost yet for IndyRef YES on Betfair – now rated by punters as a 14.2% chance

There’s been no Glasgow games boost yet for IndyRef YES on Betfair – now rated by punters as a 14.2% chance

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#IndyRef YES now being rated as just 14.2% chance by punters on Betfair – almost lowest level yet pic.twitter.com/LCfMjg0pU3 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 30, 2014 But betting interest remains strong with nearly £1.1m traded The pre-Commonwealth games expectations that the Glasgow events would provide a boost for independence campaigners has yet to be materialised if Betfair punters are anything to go by. Even though Scottish athletes are having their best games ever punters appear unmoved. The last trade on…

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PB Nighthawks is now open

PB Nighthawks is now open

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Home of the web’s best political conversation Why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks. If you’re a lurker, it’ll be a Tragedy if you don’t delurk, I’m sure your contributions won’t be Better Best Forgotten, I hope at least 5,6,7,8 lurkers delurk. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant link) Why Cameron’s crackdown on immigrant benefits won’t help the Tories. The PM…

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