Populus Green total half that of Ashcroft After a period in which UKIP has been edging down across the polls there’ll be some relief at Farage Towers that today’s Lord Ashcroft poll has them at 18% – up 4 on a week ago. The chart shows the comparisons with the Populus online poll published earlier. The bigger picture is that another month has gone by and LAB is maintaining a lead albeit a small one. Twice since the Ashcroft poll…
In two massive rounds of polling the numbers have barely shifted In an article last month the Indy on Sunday political editor and Blair biographer, John Rentoul, wrote: “My view, and this cannot be based on opinion polls, is that when the voters come to choose they will shy away from the prospect of Miliband as prime minister, just as they shied away from Neil Kinnock in 1992.†But John the unique polling resources that are available to us ahead…
The chart shows the main predictions for GE2015 from the two leading predictors – the long-standing Electoral Calculus from Martin Baxter and the relatively new one from Stephen Fisher. Ad can be see there is a huge gap between the two. Baxter points to a LAB majority Fisher to a hung parliament. Both are based on current polling the main difference is that Fisher makes an adjustment to deal with the way polls have historically operated. The notable element here…
http://t.co/lBS0VWejYf pic.twitter.com/SZosVsl3uZ Given the static #IndyRef polling the pressure's most on Salmond in Tuesday's TV debate — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 2, 2014 Can he pull off the Holyrood 2011 magic? One of the big moments in Alex Salmond’s career was a big TV debate of Scottish party leaders in late March 2011. At the time the SNP was trailing LAB in the Holyrood polling and it did look as though SLAB was going to return to power. In the debate…
For the past two years or so the fortnightly Opinium survey for the Observer has been one that has had some of the highest shares for UKIP – even, at times, into the 20s. This has happened even though Opinium doesn’t prompt for the purples and has them categorised as “some other party”. The firm’s high UKIP shares have been seen in both Westminster voting intention polls and in the Euros. Thus the final Opinium poll ahead of the May…
Con, Lab and LD all up, but so are Others So perhaps UKIP does need the oxygen of publicity after all. After recording a record score in June, Farage’s party is the biggest loser in July; indeed, the only loser. That June figure surprised many who thought that the absence from the papers and TV screens of what’s still in many ways a minor party would inevitably lead to a drop in vote share. It didn’t then but two months…
Betfair chart showing build up of betting interest in the #IndyRef set to be biggest ever non GE political gamble pic.twitter.com/Cx9WKkh7Ww — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 1, 2014 The chart above from Betfair fits in with messages coming from the traditional bookies about the huge betting interest in the September 18th Scottish referendum. I track this daily and have been amazed that this far out there has been so much activity. Generally in election markets 90%+ of all bets are…
Thurmaston on Charnwood (Con Defence) Result: Labour 783 (43%), UKIP 496 (27%), Conservatives 404 (22%), BNP 95 (5%), British Democrats 58 (3%) Labour GAIN from Conservative with a majority of 287 (16%) Mostyn on Flintshire (Ind Defence) Result: Independent 205 (40%), Labour 191 (37% +4%), UKIP 90 (18%), Conservatives 27 (5%) Independent HOLD with a majority of 14 (3%), no swing calculable Penydarren on Merthyr Tydfil (UKIP defence) Result: Labour 257 (31% -7%), Independent (Thomas) 235 (29%), Independent (Barsi) 228…