Local By-Election Results : July 17th 2014

Local By-Election Results : July 17th 2014

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Oban North and Lorn on Argyll and Bute (SNP defence) Result: Scottish Nationalists 595 (25% -6%), Independent (MacGregor) 548 (23%), Labour 526 (22%), Conservatives 445 (18% +9%), Independent (Malloy) 301 (12%) Independent (MacGregor) GAIN from Scottish Nationalist on the fifth count on a swing of 7% from Ind to SNP Mabe, Perranarworthal and St Gluvias on Cornwall (UKIP defence) Result: Conservatives 406 (33% +5%), Liberal Democrats 405 (32% +9%), UKIP 271 (22% -7%), Labour 107 (9% unchanged), Mebynon Kernow 58…

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Henry G Manson says get on Andy Burnham as EdM’s successor – it might be a good bet

Henry G Manson says get on Andy Burnham as EdM’s successor – it might be a good bet

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Andy Burnham the overwhelming leader in latest @LabourList shadow cabinet rankings pic.twitter.com/B6kaB8p8qi — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 18, 2014 Longstanding PBers will know that Henry G Manson’s has a great record with his tips on anything to do with LAB. He was dead right on EdM in 2010 and his guidance has proved pretty good over the years. This morning he emailed me to suggest that Andy Burnham was a great bet for next LAB leader. He cited as evidence…

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Good IndyRef poll for YES, LAB moves to 7% YouGov lead whilst UKIP has a dreadful night in latest by-elections

Good IndyRef poll for YES, LAB moves to 7% YouGov lead whilst UKIP has a dreadful night in latest by-elections

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YES edges forward with TNS #IndyRef YES moves to best position yet in a TNS-BMRB poll pic.twitter.com/9CUJZz3Vby — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 18, 2014 For whatever reason TNS and YouGov IndyRef polls have generally had the worst numbers for YES while Survation, ICM and PanelBase have had the best. Polling though is all about trends which is why the YES campaign is delighted by the latest from TNS-BMRB. After three other polls from other firms suggested that YES had stalled…

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Harry Hayfield’s Local By-Election Preview: July 17th 2014

Harry Hayfield’s Local By-Election Preview: July 17th 2014

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Oban North and Lorn on Argyll and Bute (SNP defence) Result of last election to council (2012): Independents 15, Scottish Nationalists 13, Conservatives 4, Liberal Democrats 4 (No Overall Control, Independents short by 4) Result of last election in ward (2012): Emboldened denotes elected Scottish Nationalists 410, 707 (31%) Independents 421, 807, 125, 361, 222, 58 (55%) Liberal Democrats 188 (5%) Conservatives 332 (9%) Candidates duly nominated: Gerry Fisher (SNP), Kieron Green (Lab), John MacGregor (Ind), Marri Malloy (Ind), Andrew…

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Latest from the “Polling Observatory” is that there’s been a slow decline in CON prospects but GE2015 still too close to call

Latest from the “Polling Observatory” is that there’s been a slow decline in CON prospects but GE2015 still too close to call

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LAB holding firm with Polling Observatory when on past trends they should be declining http://t.co/YnksOt9D81 pic.twitter.com/FJeNISIjoU — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 17, 2014 CON and LAB movements not going with historical trends Each month political scientists at a group of universities put out a GE2015 forecast under the rather grandiose banner of “The Polling Observatory” which is based on current polling and historical polling experience. The latest is in the chart above. A can be seen CON and LAB are…

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First post-reshuffle poll has the public backing Cameron over Gove

First post-reshuffle poll has the public backing Cameron over Gove

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What’s marked here is the readiness of those polled across the spectrum to back Cameron. Also note the contrast between the Gove doing good job numbers and the reshuffle finding. You would expect them to be closer. My view on this remains – it was a smart move by the PM which will, at the margin, have a positive electoral impact in the blues favour. Meanwhile Clegg’s got a Twitter hit on his hands What I wore to the office…

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PB Nighthawks is now open

PB Nighthawks is now open

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Home of the web’s best political conversation If you’re Under Pressure tonight, why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks. If you’re a lurker,  why not delurk, you’ll find posting on PB A Kind of Magic, The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant link) PMQs: Miliband sends his MPs off for the summer, each with their own personal rain cloud. Cameron misrepresented Harman’s…

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How the Evening Standard is reporting the July 2014 Ipsos-MORI poll which has no change in LAB lead

How the Evening Standard is reporting the July 2014 Ipsos-MORI poll which has no change in LAB lead

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Evening Standard reporting Ipsos-MORI that has Gove the "most unpopular politician in Britain" http://t.co/P8IOVtTwBu pic.twitter.com/0LhC4dNTGe — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 16, 2014 This is from Joe Murphy’s Standard report:- ” Ipsos MORI found just 22 per cent of the public say they like Mr Gove, while 54 per cent dislike him. A derisory 11 per cent think he has what it takes to be a prime minister, while 66 per cent say he does not. The findings come from the final…

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