Lord Ashcroft’s latest round of marginals polling finds that UKIP is hurting LAB more than CON

Lord Ashcroft’s latest round of marginals polling finds that UKIP is hurting LAB more than CON

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The big message from latest @LordAshcroft marginals polling is that LAB is now being hurt more than CON by rise of UKIP in key seats — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 22, 2014 Two months ago @LordAshcroft 's marginals polling found LAB set to gain 13 of the 14 seats polled. Now that's down to 10 with UKIP taking 2. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 22, 2014 UKIP in lead in two of the seats polled UKIPNnow in lead in Thurrock…

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Polling UKIP: The recent record shows that YouGov got closest with ICM in second place

Polling UKIP: The recent record shows that YouGov got closest with ICM in second place

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With so much variation in the UKIP share in recent polls it is perhaps worth recalling that the firm that got it most right the last time they were tested, the May 22nd Euros, was YouGov. The figures are in the chart above and it is interesting that YouGov and ICM, the ones that did best on May 22nd, are continuing to show UKIP with smaller shares for the general election compared with other pollsters. Later this morning Lord Ashcroft…

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Tories drop 5 and UKIP up 3 in this week’s Ashcroft national poll

Tories drop 5 and UKIP up 3 in this week’s Ashcroft national poll

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Yet again the Ashcroft national phone poll has surprised us. This time with a 5% drop in CON support, 2% drop for LAB and a 3% increase for UKIP. Last week the Ashcroft figures were Con 32%, Lab 36%, Lib Dem 7%, UKIP 14%, Green 6% This compares with the earlier Populus online phone poll that had the LAB lead moving from zero to 5%. Both are featured in the chart above. The Ashcroft changes are bigger than the margin…

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My anaylsis of 100+ polls shows that the 2010 LD voters who’ve switched to LAB are sticking and that’s bad news for the Tories

My anaylsis of 100+ polls shows that the 2010 LD voters who’ve switched to LAB are sticking and that’s bad news for the Tories

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Curtice is right: LD switchers aren’t going back “any time soon” In a broad-ranging interview just published Britain’s leading political scientist, Professor John Curtice made these observations about Labour’s polling position and GE2015. “..basically the reason why the Labour party is in the lead is because of the loss of Liberal Democrat support to Labour. It goes all the way back to 2010 and it’s not obvious that it’s going to go back anytime soon… ..I see no reason why…

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Lord Ashcroft’s latest round of CON-LAB marginals polling would be even more informative if the candidates were named

Lord Ashcroft’s latest round of CON-LAB marginals polling would be even more informative if the candidates were named

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The 14 CON held marginals that @LordAshcroft polled in May. It looks like these are the seats for his latest polling pic.twitter.com/mqPFWFk4MC — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 20, 2014 @MSmithsonPB all revealed next week Mike! — Lord Ashcroft (@LordAshcroft) July 19, 2014 Are the blues getting a first time incumbency bonus? I got into a good natured Twitter exchange last night with Lord Ashcroft about the seats that will be included in his next round of marginals polling due to…

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The Sunday Times YouGov findings on the reshuffle, Michael Gove, free schools, the “bedroom tax” and leaving the ECHR

The Sunday Times YouGov findings on the reshuffle, Michael Gove, free schools, the “bedroom tax” and leaving the ECHR

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YouGov poll finding on more women being in the cabinet pic.twitter.com/mGRDtJiNr7 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 20, 2014 Are the Tories still seen as the “nasty party? Today's YouGov poll suggests that Cameron is making progress over the Tories being seen as the "nasty party". pic.twitter.com/MYX0ODEFhC — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 20, 2014 Just 13% tell YouGov that the re-shuffle has made the Tory team of ministers look stronger. 16% say weaker — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 20, 2014 The…

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ComRes online and Opinium polls are out

ComRes online and Opinium polls are out

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Tonight’s polls are changes within the margin of error, though the Lib Dems will be delighted to be up by 2% in both polls. Opinium for the Observer shows Labour lead at 4pts in latest Opinium/Obs poll. Lab 34 (-1), Con 30 (+1), Ukip 17 (-1), Lib Dems 9 (+2). Cam and Mili personal ratings up. — Toby Helm (@tobyhelm) July 19, 2014 The ComRes supplementaries make for interesting (if depressing) reading for Dave and Ed. On the reshuffle doesn’t…

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Say hello to the Lilac Tories

Say hello to the Lilac Tories

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David Herdson on Cameron’s line-up for GE2015 Squaring circles is part of the business of politics.  One such conundrum David Cameron has to face is how to simultaneously make the party he leads more appealing to centrist floating voters while also attracting back those who’ve defected to UKIP.  On the face of it, those are two incompatible objectives: how can a party move both left and right at the same time?  The simple answer is it can’t; the more complex…

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