On a uniform swing Nicky Morgan’s Loughborough goes LAB even if CON win most votes nationally

On a uniform swing Nicky Morgan’s Loughborough goes LAB even if CON win most votes nationally

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Nicky Morgan's Loughborough is a key marginal which on uniform swing goes LAB even if CON ahead on votes nationally pic.twitter.com/yAA3hSUQln — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 16, 2014 Ladbrokes make it LAB 10/11 and CON 10/11 The above table is based on the Electoral Calculus projection of what happens on national vote shares of CON 36, LAB 35.6, LD, 12, UKIP 9. The seat highlighted is Nicky Morgan’s Loughborough which as can be seen would go LAB even though EdM’s…

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Extraordinary. Gove was killed by Lynton Crosby’s private polling of teachers

Extraordinary. Gove was killed by Lynton Crosby’s private polling of teachers

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I understand Osborne opposed Gove move but dire opinion polling presented by Lynton Crosby of MG's standing with teachers forced change. — Tim Montgomerie (@TimMontgomerie) July 15, 2014 This matches YouGov polling pre-GE2010 and 2014 Just for @MSmithsonPB – proportion of teachers in each constituency in England & Wales, overlaid by Labour targets: pic.twitter.com/bPrwTXDVyf — Election-data (@election_data) July 15, 2014

The re-shuffle continued:-

The re-shuffle continued:-

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John McTernan sums this up brilliantly Theme of the #reshuffle is weakness. Teachers hate Gove; green lobby hate Paterson; euro-sceptics hate Clarke/Hague. All shall have scalps. — John McTernan (@johnmcternan) July 15, 2014 Liz Truss promotion to cabinet almost 2 years after this @NewStatesman cover tipped her as Iron Lady 2.0 pic.twitter.com/ICMQsSgFKe — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 15, 2014

Post-reshuffle leadership betting: The new Foreign Secretary comes into the picture

Post-reshuffle leadership betting: The new Foreign Secretary comes into the picture

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The Ladbrokes 14/1 looks good value The big winner in the reshuffle is, undoubtedly, the new Foreign Secretary, Philip Hammond, who, with Theresa May, have been my long term bets at longish odds for Cameron’s successor. I got him originally at 41/1 and overnight I’ve put more on at 16.5 on Betfair and 14/1 with Ladbrokes This looks a great price for someone who now occupies one of the three great offices of State and would be in an ideal…

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The Reshuffle

The Reshuffle

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Looks like the big political news of the day isn’t the Blues taking the lead with the gold standard of UK polling, but the reshuffle David Cameron is currently undertaking. The big news is William Hague standing down as Foreign Secretary. 1/2 I'd like to pay an enormous tribute to @WilliamJHague who is standing down as an MP at the next election. — David Cameron (@David_Cameron) July 14, 2014 2/2 Until then, I'm delighted he'll remain my de facto political…

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CON take lead with ICM as Ukip drop 7 points

CON take lead with ICM as Ukip drop 7 points

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Tories take lead – Ukip down 7 – in latest ICM/Guardian poll pic.twitter.com/abv7Nah6BT — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 14, 2014 ICM was the most accurate pollster at GE1997, GE2001, GE2010 and in the AV referendum — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 14, 2014 The ICM/Guardian poll is out and the big move is Ukip falling by 7 points on the month. This has helped boost the Tories who are now 1% ahead of LAB. The LDs, meanwhile, are up 2 at…

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The Lib Dems drop 4 to just 7% in today’s Ashcroft phone poll. Earlier, though, Populus had them up 1

The Lib Dems drop 4 to just 7% in today’s Ashcroft phone poll. Earlier, though, Populus had them up 1

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More details from the @LordAshcroft poll pic.twitter.com/kPSMumpyJ7 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 14, 2014 Another poll to worry the LD leadership The LD 7% the the lowest recorded since the Ashcroft weekly phone poll began in May. What’s is startling is the size of the fall from 11% to just 7% in just a week. This is greater than the margin of error. Earlier the Populus Monday poll showed no decline in the LD share which it had up 1%…

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Why Blairites like John Rentoul have got to stop looking at GE2015 through the prism of 1997

Why Blairites like John Rentoul have got to stop looking at GE2015 through the prism of 1997

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From the recent @LordAshcroft CON-LAB marginals poll: Miliband's most enthusiastic backers – LD-LAB switchers pic.twitter.com/NJ6f8TaN7W — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 14, 2014 It’s a totally different election with very different dynamics There’s no doubt that Tony Blair’s GE1997 victory, coming as it did after four election defeats over the previous 18 years, was a stunning success. Blair did it by reinventing his party so it would appeal to large swaithes of voters who never before had done anything other than…

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