Worrying GE2015 and Euro numbers for the Tories in latest Survation/Mail on Sunday poll

Worrying GE2015 and Euro numbers for the Tories in latest Survation/Mail on Sunday poll

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Last week the Survation GE2015 gap was just 1% – now it’s 7% Survation finds 6% CON drop for EP2014 as both UKIP & LD get boosts On the Euro polling the big difference between Survation and ComRes was on the timing of the fieldwork. All of the Survation work took place after the Clegg/Farage BBC TV debate. As can be seen the firm reports big changes compared with a week ago with the Tories as the main loser. I’m…

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ComRes: No EP2014 poll boost for either Nigel or Nick following the TV debates

ComRes: No EP2014 poll boost for either Nigel or Nick following the TV debates

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LAB now moves into joint first place with UKIP The first poll of the night is out – a Euros survey by ComRes for the People, and there’s very little change. Both UKIP and the LDs will be disappointed not to have made any progress on the last such survey by the firm a month ago. Fieldwork for the poll took place during the day of and the day after the second debate and it would appear to have had…

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David Herdson on whether Farage has done enough to win a place in the 2015 debates

David Herdson on whether Farage has done enough to win a place in the 2015 debates

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One thing we should know: the debates will happen In one sense, David Cameron and Ed Miliband missed out on an opportunity by declining the invites to what turned into the Clegg-Farage Eurodebates.  Not being there will not have helped either of their parties and Cameron in particular could have occupied the popular sceptical middle ground between Clegg’s uncritical Europhilia and Farage’s withdrawalism. However, that opportunity has to be set against the cost, which would have been establishing a precedent…

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Not good front pages for Maria Miller

Not good front pages for Maria Miller

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Not good front pages for Maria Miller. The Times & Telegraph are leading on story pic.twitter.com/64iUGSaM4F — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 4, 2014 And Ladbrokes tigten her exit odds to 2/1 Ladbrokes: Odds of Maria Miller being next Cabinet Minister out cut from 3/1 to 2/1 following new Telegraph revelations. — Ladbrokes Politics (@LadPolitics) April 4, 2014 Just bet at 3/1 with Ladbrokes that Maria Miller will be next cabinet exit — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 4, 2014

Local By-Election Result : April 3rd 2014

Local By-Election Result : April 3rd 2014

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Blacko and Higherford on Pendle (Conservative defence) Neil McEvoy (Conservative) 370 votes (67% -13% on Locals 2011) Mick Waddington (United Kingdom Independence Party) 86 votes (15%, no candidate in 2011) Robert Oliver (Labour) 65 votes (12% -8% on Locals 2011) Darren Reynolds (Liberal Democrats) 34 votes (6%, no candidate in 2011) Conservative HOLD with a majority of 284 votes (51%) on a swing from Con to UKIP of 14% Turnout: 39% Whilst I was writing this, news broke of the…

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Lots pressure on Maria Miller over expenses, but I’m not tempted to bet that she’ll be next cabinet exit

Lots pressure on Maria Miller over expenses, but I’m not tempted to bet that she’ll be next cabinet exit

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PaddyPower http://t.co/45A6m2316P make Maria Miller 5/2 favourite for next cabinet exit pic.twitter.com/DEpMdKp5qI — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 4, 2014 Ladbrokes http://t.co/5ytVwnr30K make Maria Miller 3/1 jt favourite to next out of cabinet. pic.twitter.com/eAQ1YmzfAH — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 4, 2014 The two main things we’ve learned about cabinet exit betting since GE2010 is that Cameron is loathe to make changes and even when things look grim, almost terminal, for a minister they can survive. Secondly politicians who’ve reached that level…

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They’ll never admit it publicly but LD chances of retaining seats against the Tories rely a lot on UKIP doing well

They’ll never admit it publicly but LD chances of retaining seats against the Tories rely a lot on UKIP doing well

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Why the Yellows need the purple surge to be sustained It was back in September last year that Lord Ashcroft produced his most recent examination on the marginals where the most surprising finding was how well the yellows appeared to be doing in seats they’ll be trying to win off the Tories in May next year. In the eight constituencies polled Ashcroft found that the LDs were only 3% behind the blues opening up the possiblity that one or two…

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Local By-Election Preview: April 3rd 2014

Local By-Election Preview: April 3rd 2014

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Blacko and Higherford on Pendle (Conservative defence) Result of last election to council (2011): Conservatives 18, Labour 16, Liberal Democrats 12, British National Party 2, Independents 1 (No Overall Control, Conservatives short by 7) Result of ward at last election (2011): Conservative 583 (80%), Labour 148 (20%). Conservative HOLD with a majority of 435 (60%) Candidates duly nominated: Noel McEvoy (Con), Robert Oliver (Lab), Darren Reynolds (Lib Dem), Mick Waddington (UKIP) Pendle’s electoral history since 2003 reads like “I’m a…

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