The Scottish IndyRef is set to be the biggest non-general election UK political betting event ever

The Scottish IndyRef is set to be the biggest non-general election UK political betting event ever

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Betfair chart showing build up of betting interest in the #IndyRef set to be biggest ever non GE political gamble pic.twitter.com/Cx9WKkh7Ww — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 1, 2014 The chart above from Betfair fits in with messages coming from the traditional bookies about the huge betting interest in the September 18th Scottish referendum. I track this daily and have been amazed that this far out there has been so much activity. Generally in election markets 90%+ of all bets are…

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Full round up of this week’s local by-elections with news of 2 LAB gains

Full round up of this week’s local by-elections with news of 2 LAB gains

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Thurmaston on Charnwood (Con Defence) Result: Labour 783 (43%), UKIP 496 (27%), Conservatives 404 (22%), BNP 95 (5%), British Democrats 58 (3%) Labour GAIN from Conservative with a majority of 287 (16%) Mostyn on Flintshire (Ind Defence) Result: Independent 205 (40%), Labour 191 (37% +4%), UKIP 90 (18%), Conservatives 27 (5%) Independent HOLD with a majority of 14 (3%), no swing calculable Penydarren on Merthyr Tydfil (UKIP defence) Result: Labour 257 (31% -7%), Independent (Thomas) 235 (29%), Independent (Barsi) 228…

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The chances of a LAB majority have dropped by 10% since the budget according to Betfair punters

The chances of a LAB majority have dropped by 10% since the budget according to Betfair punters

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But Labour’s inherent electoral advantages could be being ignored Exactly 8 months today on April 1st 2015 the formal general election campaign will begin and my intention at the start of every month is to monitor betting prices on the Betfair exchange to see how the mood is changing. The chart above shows current latest trades on the firm’s GE2015 outcome market and has comparisons with what it was just before the March 2014 budget. As can be seen the…

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Harry Hayfield’s Local By-Election Preview: July 31st 2014

Harry Hayfield’s Local By-Election Preview: July 31st 2014

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Thurmaston on Charnwood (Con Defence) Result of last election to council (2011): Conservatives 33, Labour 16, British National Party 1, Liberal Democrats 1, Independent 1 (Conservative majority of 14) Result of last election in ward (2011): Emboldened denotes elected Conservative 1,473, 1,399, 1,309 Labour 1,306, 1,153, 1,058 Candidates duly nominated: Hanif Asmal (Con), Chris Canham (British Democrats), Stepgen Denhan (BNP), Tom Prior (UKIP), Ralph Raven (Lab) On the face of it Charnwood appears to be a Conservative area, however appearances…

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The GE2015 seat split based on the latest PaddyPower line betting

The GE2015 seat split based on the latest PaddyPower line betting

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If this was the outcome Cameron could sit tight We are going to see a lot of projected commons numbers like the ones in the chart above in the next ten months. What’s showing here are the buy levels for the three main parties on PaddyPower and as can be seen neither CON nor LAB would have a majority and would probably try to cobble together some deal to see themselves through. What the chart doesn’t show is that it’s…

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With Dave outclassing Ed in the ratings and the economy getting better how come CON’s behind in the polls?

With Dave outclassing Ed in the ratings and the economy getting better how come CON’s behind in the polls?

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Cameron retains his 17% lead with YouGov as best PM pic.twitter.com/ai1oNmBJ4N — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 31, 2014 Why are the Tories not in the lead? One of the ongoing mysteries is why CON continue to lag behind LAB in the voting intention polls. The economy is recovering and this is now being seen by voters. On top of that the Tories retain a solid lead over LAB as best party on the economy. We also have the Ed Miliband…

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Nighthawks is now open

Nighthawks is now open

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Home of the web’s best political conversation Why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB Night Hawks. If you’re Hungry Like The Wolf for news on politics and betting, you’ve come to the right place on Planet Earth for political betting. If you’ve always been a lurker, and have The Reflex not to post, Nighthawks gives you an opportunity to delurk, don’t worry, you won’t become Wild Boys or Wild Girls after posting. The…

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For YouGov trend spotting these are the best figures to watch not the daily polls

For YouGov trend spotting these are the best figures to watch not the daily polls

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The @YouGov monthly average Jan 2013 – June 2014. Figures for July out on Friday. pic.twitter.com/pEBBd634Cu — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 30, 2014 After the LAB lead dropped from 6% on Monday night to 1% last night there’s been a lot of discussion about the volatility of the firm’s out. In reality, of course, both of this week’s polls have been within the margin of error. The numbers I most look out for are above – the monthly averages which…

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