Nighthawks is now open

Nighthawks is now open

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Home of the web’s best political conversation Why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks. If you’re a lurker, why not delurk tonight. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant link)  Nicky Morgan’s challenge: stop Gove becoming a useful bogeyman Is the wizardry of Conservative strategist Lynton Crosby a myth? Boris standing as an MP is the silliest story of the silly season. Although that’s…

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How whether Scotland remains part of the UK is totally dominating the political betting markets at the moment

How whether Scotland remains part of the UK is totally dominating the political betting markets at the moment

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What’s surprising is the lack of interest in the party leaders The chart is a snapshot, based on total amounts matched on the Betfair exchange, of what it happening on the political betting markets at the moment. Much of our talk might be of the general election and the future of the party leaders but that is not what is grabbing the attention of punters. Very few political markets ever top the £1m mark on Betfair and my guess, based…

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If the “ICM August polls before general elections” rule works again then Ed Miliband is home and dry

If the “ICM August polls before general elections” rule works again then Ed Miliband is home and dry

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Look at the record for when LAB is in the lead Five years ago I made a comment on PB that August polls should not be trusted because of the holiday effect and got into an email exchange with Nick Sparrow – then head of polling for ICM. He pointed out the following from his firm’s record over several general elections which on the face of it looks convincing. August 1996 ICM poll had LAB ahead by 12%. The result…

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The August ICM poll sees reverse cross-over with LAB moving from a 1% deficit to a 7% lead

The August ICM poll sees reverse cross-over with LAB moving from a 1% deficit to a 7% lead

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And the inevitable “what if Boris was CON leader” questions Tonight’s big polling news is that Labour has moved up sharply in the monthly ICM phone poll for the Guardian. In July EdM’s party was 1% behind. Now they are 7% ahead. I must admit that I’m rather surprised by these latest findings and was expecting both main parties to be just about level-pegging. We’ll have to wait till the full data is out before we can work out what’s…

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Another cross-over gets reversed – but could ICM, expected tonight, have a consecutive CON lead?

Another cross-over gets reversed – but could ICM, expected tonight, have a consecutive CON lead?

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This could be a highly unusual polling day for the two firms to be reporting both had the Tories in the lead last time out. A couple of hours ago Populus online moved from a 1% CON lead on Friday to a 4% LAB one now. Later in the day I’m hoping that we should see the ICM Guardian poll which in July had CON 34. LAB 33, LD 12, UKIP 9. I’ve not had confirmation yet that this will…

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YouGov’s IndyRef NO lead grows even though the firm’s tweaked its methodology to make it more favourable to YES

YouGov’s IndyRef NO lead grows even though the firm’s tweaked its methodology to make it more favourable to YES

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@MSmithsonPB still not helping 😉 pic.twitter.com/wI2FAzgrUz — Steve Sayers (@stevesayers1) August 11, 2014 New YouGov I#ndyRef poll for Sun has NO lead up 1 NO 55%+1 YES -35% DK 10%-1 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 10, 2014 Excluding don't knows tonight's Sun #IndyRef poll is 61% NO to 39% YES — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 10, 2014 Fieldwork straddled last Tuesday’s Darling-Salmond debate There’s a new IndyRef poll out from YouGov – the firm which has generally been showing bigger NO leads and…

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Lifting the Margin of Error Safety Blanket

Lifting the Margin of Error Safety Blanket

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The trend is still your friend > “All changes are within the margin of error”.  It’s a frequently heard line, usually trotted out by those sympathetic to a party whose share has just declined, or by those keen to fence-sit.  While it may be true (and it usually is: only six of the 600 or so poll-to-poll changes across the four parties in this year’s YouGov series have been more than 3%, for example, and then only by a single…

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Detailed data from the YouGov/ST polls finds that fewer current CON voters would back party if Boris was leader

Detailed data from the YouGov/ST polls finds that fewer current CON voters would back party if Boris was leader

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YouGov/ST Boris polling finds that FEWER current CON voters would back party with Boris as leader (HT @georgeeaton) pic.twitter.com/gIvB2FZDTb — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 10, 2014 The mayor attracts votes as well as turning some off Thanks to George Eaton at the New Statesman for picking this up. A Boris-led Tory party could lead to fewer current CON voters backing the party. Looking at the detail in the table above we see that there’s a 5% drop amongst current CON…

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