The polling that suggests that Boris could play a part in winning back CON voters from UKIP

The polling that suggests that Boris could play a part in winning back CON voters from UKIP

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Today 's YouGov S Times polling showing the appeal of Boris to UKIP voters pic.twitter.com/1TplGaV3lm — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 10, 2014 But he’s not seen as being up to job of being PM 36% tell YouGov that Boris would be up to the job of PM, 43% say he would not. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 9, 2014 YouGov S Times poll with named leaders finds that CON would do 1% better with Boris rather than Dave. — Mike…

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Local By-Election Results: August 7th 2014

Local By-Election Results: August 7th 2014

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Broadley Common, Epping Upland and Nazing on Epping Forest (Con Defence) Result: Conservatives 155 (50% -34%), UKIP 122 (40%), Green 23 (7% -3%), Liberal Democrats 7 (2% -4%) Conservative HOLD with a majority of 33 (10%) on a swing of 37% from Conservative to UKIP Warboys and Bury on Huntingdonshire (Con Defence) Result: Conservative 616 (47% +1%), UKIP 560 (42% +16%), Liberal Democrats 78 (6% -7%), Labour 72 (5% -10%) Conservative HOLD with a majority of 56 (5%) on a…

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Huge blow for Salmond and the Scottish Independence campaign in first full post TV debate referendum poll

Huge blow for Salmond and the Scottish Independence campaign in first full post TV debate referendum poll

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How the Scottish Daily Mail is reporting its Survation #IndyRef poll showing big post-debate boost for NO pic.twitter.com/1oPFhHSidM — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 9, 2014 NEW #indyref Survation/Scottish Daily Mail (chg since Aug 3rd) Yes 37% (-3) No 50% (+4) Undec 13% (-1) Ex Undec Yes 43% (-4) No 57% (+4) — Survation (@Survation) August 8, 2014 NO lead moves from 6% to 14% in less than a week A new poll by Survation for the Scottish Daily Mail has just been published and sees a…

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It looks as though Farage is going for South Thanet where the bookies give him a 44% chance

It looks as though Farage is going for South Thanet where the bookies give him a 44% chance

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Could Labour be the best bet? After the big news about Boris and GE2015 we now have further details about Nigel Farage’s intentions. It looks as though he is going for South Thanet – a seat that had been strongly tipped and where he has stood before. A selection meeting has been fixed for August 26th though it does look like a formality for the party leader. The seat was won by the Tories in May 2010 by Laura Sandys…

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We have cross-over with Populus online. CON 36% LAB 35%

We have cross-over with Populus online. CON 36% LAB 35%

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CON moves into the lead with Populus online Lab 35 (-2), Con 36 (+1), LD 9 (=), UKIP 11 (-1). Usual good poll for CON on Fridays — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 8, 2014 But Tories need bigger margin to ensure most seats Even though today's Populus online poll has a CON lead Electoral Calculus has LAB biggest party 12 short pic.twitter.com/VjaKSK0yLO — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 8, 2014 And the fundamental problem for the blues remains: The killer figure…

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An inconvenient fact for Boris backers is that more people tell pollsters they’ll support him than actually give him their vote

An inconvenient fact for Boris backers is that more people tell pollsters they’ll support him than actually give him their vote

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Why we should be sceptical about all Boris polling For those like me who love watching political battles the ongoing tussle for the Tory leadership between Boris Johnson and George Osborne will be a pleasure to behold. Both have their strong points and both, it is said, have set their hearts on being Dave’s successor. If the Tories don’t hold on in government next May then that intriguing confrontation could be only nine months away. One factor that apparently is…

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Local By-Election Preview: August 7th 2014

Local By-Election Preview: August 7th 2014

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Broadley Common, Epping Upland and Nazing on Epping Forest (Con Defence) Result of last election to council (2014): Conservatives 37, Residents 12, Liberal Democrats 3, Independents 2, United Kingdom Independence Party 2, Green 1, Labour 1 (Conservative majority of 16) Result of ward at last election (2011): Conservatives 585 (84%), Greens 69 (10%), Liberal Democrats 43 (6%) Candidates duly nominated: Robert Glozier (Con), William Hartington (Green), Ron McEvoy (UKIP), Arnold Verrall (Lib Dem) Epping Forest, a rock solid Conservative seat…

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The IndyRef YES price touches rock bottom as punters give their verdict on Salmond’s failure to win Tuesday’s debate

The IndyRef YES price touches rock bottom as punters give their verdict on Salmond’s failure to win Tuesday’s debate

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#IndyRef YES sinking fast on the Betfair exchange. Now down to a 13.5% chance pic.twitter.com/ip9HHJQePT — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 7, 2014 The time for recovery is getting shorter The betting on the Scottish IndyRef has moved further to NO during the day even though, as yet, we have yet to see the first full post debate referendum poll. The latest price traded on Betfair as I write, (1420) was at the 7.4 level which converts to a 13.5% chance….

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