Guest Slot: Five reasons to bet on Labour winning the Euros this Thursday

Guest Slot: Five reasons to bet on Labour winning the Euros this Thursday

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Predicting an election when the three top parties could well end up within three or four points of one and other and in any order of gold, silver and bronze is likely a fool’s errand. But finding value in the betting market before Thursday isn’t. There’s big reasons for Labour to rightfully worry about UKIP this Thursday (the continued erosion of its blue collar base, UKIP in-roads on Labour-identifying non-voters etc, the immigration issue etc). But there’s also small things…

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The PB EP2014 Competition: Predict the party shares to win a free bet at Ladbrokes

The PB EP2014 Competition: Predict the party shares to win a free bet at Ladbrokes

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Will PB’s Wisdom of Crowds” gets closest to Thursday’s outcome? First go to the Prediction Page Second If you are a registered poster on the site then use your Vanilla username. If not then enter your email address as well. We will need to contact you to arrange for your free £50 bet at Ladbrokes if you win. Third Enter your predictions for each party up to two decimal points. Fourth, after you have made your predictions of the shares…

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ComRes phone poll and ComRes and YouGov Euros polls all out

ComRes phone poll and ComRes and YouGov Euros polls all out

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In recent days and especially today, it feels like a General Election campaign with a phalanx of polls, and it is hard to work out what the polls mean with polls with markedly different results. First Up, we have the ComRes phone poll for the Independent. ComRes/Independent Westminster (phone) poll Lab 35% (-1) Con 30% (-) UKIP 14% (+2) LD 8% (-1) Others 13% (-) http://t.co/LY90t5vkJt — Andrew Hawkins (@Andrew_ComRes) May 19, 2014   Well also have a ComRes online…

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The second Lord Ashcroft poll has Labour six ahead

The second Lord Ashcroft poll has Labour six ahead

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Labour takes a 6 point lead with Lord Ashcroft’s polling.   Lord Ashcroft poll has published his second weekly phone poll on Westminster VI and it great news for the Red team As the good Lord himself says wisely This looks like quite a reversal in the week since the inaugural Ashcroft National Poll found the first Tory lead since 2012. What is going on? Ten general election voting intention surveys have been published between last Monday’s poll and today’s. Of those…

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Populus becomes the third pollster in a week to show the Tories ahead

Populus becomes the third pollster in a week to show the Tories ahead

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This morning’s Populus online poll became the third pollster in a week to show The Conservatives ahead, it is also the first online pollster to show the Blues ahead since March 2012. The two most interesting phenomenon of this period of Conservatives ahead in the polling is i) That is happening in the run-up to the last set of elections before next year’s General Election.  ii) The Conservatives are only 1 to 3 % down on their General election score,…

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Why Ukip will stay odds-on to win most votes at EP2014 even if none the polls have them in first place

Why Ukip will stay odds-on to win most votes at EP2014 even if none the polls have them in first place

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The bookie view of political betting In the past fortnight the political specialist at Ladbrokes, Shadsy, has launched a blog called “The Political Bookie – NEWS FROM LADBROKES’ POLITICAL ODDS DESK”. It is turning out to be a fascinating read providing great insights in political betting from the bookie perspective. One recent article was on Thursday’s battle for the London Borough of Richmond where Ladbrokes were initially offering 20/1 that the LDs would take control and how this has tightened…

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Two of the latest EP2014 polls have just 4% separating top three: The third has a range of 15%

Two of the latest EP2014 polls have just 4% separating top three: The third has a range of 15%

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I’m looking forward to the post election polling inquest I cannot recall a previous election where there was such a division between the pollsters. Some of them are not getting this right but which ones? In the past week all three of the top parties have had a lead – the biggest being the massive 11% UKIP recorded by ComRes online which totally limits its published numbers to those 100% certain to vote. Given measuring turnout is so important I’m…

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After last month’s IndyRef scare the May ICM Scottish poll sees YES down to an eight month low

After last month’s IndyRef scare the May ICM Scottish poll sees YES down to an eight month low

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New ICM #IndyRef poll sees sharp reverse for YES. Yes 34 -5 No 46 +4 DK 20 +1 http://t.co/Rrty4rvWRd pic.twitter.com/oSjVH20ga8 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 18, 2014 This’ll ease the jitters in the NO camp Probably the most influential poll over the past month was the ICM on;one Scottish survey for Scotland on Sunday which had the NO lead down to just 3%. This was the best position for YES in any media commissioned poll and has set the narrative in both Edinburgh…

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