Survation poll in 13 key CON held marginals finds CON to LAB swing of 9%

Survation poll in 13 key CON held marginals finds CON to LAB swing of 9%

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New marginals poll by Survation for UNITE union finds 9% CON to LAB swing in key seats pic.twitter.com/q3s7B8pLpS — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 6, 2014 If this actually happened EdM would win a comfortable majority Many of the seats in the poll were included within the recent phases of Lord Ashcroft’s marginals polling though his latest numbers suggest a move about one half of what Survation has found. A 9% swing is far better for Labour than any recent national…

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PB Nighthawks is open

PB Nighthawks is open

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Home of the web’s best political conversation Why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks. If you’re a lurker, why not delurk tonight. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant link) Boris Johnson lays down the gauntlet to David Cameron For now Cameron will reap the rewards of Boris Johnson’s return. The Tories’ star player can defend the party’s leader against Nigel Farage…

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Boris playing a full part in the CON GE2015 campaign could help win back some of the kipper defectors

Boris playing a full part in the CON GE2015 campaign could help win back some of the kipper defectors

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Ladbrokes http://t.co/5FG1QdHZUh slash the odds in Boris being next CON leader from 5/1 to 9/4. He's new favourite — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 6, 2014 YouGov polling from February on the Boris effect & UKIP supports. pic.twitter.com/RR1Be5fgXf — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 6, 2014 The big Tory news today has been the announcement by Boris that he’s to seek a constituency to fight at GE2015 so he can return to the commons. Back in February YouGov carried out some polling…

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The Salmond-Darling encounter: Watch the full debate here

The Salmond-Darling encounter: Watch the full debate here

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Given how difficult it was for those outside Scotland to watch last night here are three YouTube videos of the entire event. Part 2 is perhaps the sharpest. Tonight's #ScotDecides #indyref @icmresearch debate poll versus Survation's pre-debate expectations attached: pic.twitter.com/aIvZ32x3KP — Survation (@Survation) August 5, 2014

As the Salmond v Darling debate begins – Ipsos-Mori publishes a poll that gives Salmond and yes a boost

As the Salmond v Darling debate begins – Ipsos-Mori publishes a poll that gives Salmond and yes a boost

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Yes are up 4% and No remains unchanged but since the start of the year No’s lead has fallen from 25 to 14.   Excluding don’t knows UPDATE – POST DEBATE POLLING Victory for Darling A Guardian/ICM poll of viewers has concluded that Darling won the debate by 56pc to 44pc. — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) August 5, 2014 Taking all 512 into account, the result was: Alistair Darling 47% Alex Salmond 37% Don’t Know 15% — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) August 5,…

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Remember when the Tories “won” England at GE2005: Ahead on the popular vote but 92 behind on seats

Remember when the Tories “won” England at GE2005: Ahead on the popular vote but 92 behind on seats

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Labour’s other crutch: First past the post Britain’s leading political scientist, Professor John Curtice, has taken to describing the phenomenon of the 2010 LD to LAB switchers as Labour’s “crutch” for without this massive influx of support EdM’s party would be in a sorry state. I’d suggest that there’s another crutch that is equally if not more valuable – the way the electoral system works. Nothing, I think, better illustrates this than the GE2005 results for England’s 529 seats. The…

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Now the betting money moves to an IndyRef YES – up in a week from 14.2% chance to a 20% one

Now the betting money moves to an IndyRef YES – up in a week from 14.2% chance to a 20% one

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1300 on TV #IndyRef debate day. Latest Betfair YES an 18.9% chance pic.twitter.com/QKUfbv86BY — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 5, 2014 But can Salmond versus Darling change the fundamentals? Make no mistake – this is a massive day in the Scottish IndyRef Campaign. For tonight the First Minister of Scotland takes on the leader of “Better Together” the former UK chancellor, Alistair Darling, in a two hour long live TV debate. So far this is the only such debate that had…

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