Are we getting too many polls? I know that might be a churlish thing for us polling addicts to say but the below graph shows the comparison of the number of Westminster VI polls conducted by BPC pollsters, in July 2009 and July 2014. We’ve gone from eight polls in July 2009, to forty-four in July 2014, even if we remove the YouGov daily tracker, the number of non You-Gov polls has increased from five to twenty in the same…
The FT's Janan Ganesh pic.twitter.com/lRZnizuSWE — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 15, 2014 The Janan Ganesh comment that goes right to the heart of GE2015 In the run up to the May elections the George Osborne biographer and FT columnist wrote the following which goes right to the heart of the Tory challenge on economic policy. “…Anyone who thinks the effectiveness of Labour’s cost of living motif is somehow pegged to economic data does not understand why it worked in the…
South Normanton East on Bolsover (Lab Defence) Result of last election to council (2011): Labour 32, Independents 4, Green 1 (Labour majority of 27) Result of last election in ward (2011): Emboldened denotes elected Labour 647, 597 Conservative 248, 228 British National Party 176 Candidates duly nominated: Tracey Cannon (Lab), Robert Sainsbury (Con) Bolsover is one of those places that if it wasn’t for characters like Dennis Skinner MP (the so called “Beast of Bolsover”) wouldn’t really generate any interest…
Looking at the mathematics of a Scottish 2016 exit This post has been prompted by comments on previous threads about the impact on LAB chances should Scotland vote five weeks today for independence. The plan is that the actual separation should take place in March 2016 which could have an impact on what happens in the aftermath of next May’s UK general election. For clearly on separation Scotland’s 59 Westminster seats will cease to exist and the commons will be…
New Survation poll of Scotland's women finds big #IndyRef lead for NO pic.twitter.com/dzrn3NLw1s — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 13, 2014 The Survation/Daily Record Scottish women's poll was carried out from Fri – Tues & is first of its kind. After DKs excluded NO 20% ahead — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 13, 2014 The front page of Thursday’s Daily Record is dominated by a new Survation poll confined to Scottish women only. This is the first time such a survey has…
Home of the web’s best political conversation Why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks. If you’re a lurker, why not delurk tonight. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant link) Second Scottish independence debate to be screened live across UK by BBC. Alistair Darling and Alex Salmond will go head to head on 25 August, as 700,000 postal votes are sent out…
LAB & CON level pegging amongst those certain to vote with @IpsosMORI . LAB 2% ahead with all expressing VI pic.twitter.com/Je4sGsBxGa — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 13, 2014 Ipsos-MORI voting intentions if Boris/Osbo/Theresa were leaders. The inevitable Boris boost! pic.twitter.com/0WBx0vyavg — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 13, 2014 All leaders up in the August @IpsosMORI leader satisfaction ratings. Maybe cos they're on holiday! pic.twitter.com/ZHjNm38WOt — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 13, 2014
Understanding Labour’s “other crutch” We’ve talked a lot on PB about Labour’s “electoral crutch” – the big shift to it since 2010 of Lib Dem voters which has so far remained. Well Labour has another crutch – the electoral system which could be equally or even more important. UK general elections are not decided by aggregate national vote shares but by FPTP elections in 650 separate seats where voters choose which individuals they want as their MPs. Unlike the Euro…