GE1992 Even the exit poll got it wrong Martin Boon, head of ICM the pollster with the best track record, has voiced on several occasions in recent weeks that the Scottish referendum could be a disaster for them on the scale of 1992. This was when all the firms totally understated the eventual CON lead of 7.5% and only one of them had a lead at all albeit of just 0.5% For GE1992 was the election when the pollsters got…
The shape of polling to come post referendum? Interesting new Survation poll published overnight by Survation with new Westminster numbers showing for the first time two sets of numbers – both with Scotland and without. The outcome is not surprising but it is good to measure it. Given that generally Survation tends to show higher UKIP figures than most other firms and lower CON ones then the one percent CON deficit should be encouraging. But inevitably the whole political environment…
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You’ve got to be careful making presumptions about voters Given the polls there are three things that YES/Salmond have to do: Ensure there’s a maximum turnout amongst those currently saying YES; try to win over some switchers, and endeavour to ensure lower turnout levels amongst those inclined to NO. It is that last category, I’d suggest, that are most important which is why YES/Salmond have to ensure that what they do doesn’t galvanise those who are against change. I’m far…
More than 80% of postal votes have now been returned The big unknown from this election is turnout – something that all the pollsters seek to measure and apply when working out their final vote shares. Thus the 2% NO lead ICM phone poll used the firm’s standard turnout adjuster of attaching a 50% discount to those who didn’t vote in previous parliamentary elections. But in the context Thursday’s totally unprecedented election we don’t know whether that’s a valid approach…
Tonight’s IndyRef polling running blog A total of four polls are expected tonight and this thread and chart will be updated as new information comes in. Opinium for the Observer has NO 6% ahead and Panelbase for the Sunday Times has a gap of just 1.2%. Earlier there was a ultra small sample online poll from ICM for the S Telegraph which had an 8% YES lead – in sharp contrast to firm’s phone poll for the Guardian. There was…
Survation #indyref poll is No 54 Yes 46 – Is reportedly a phone poll, so not good to compare to their last poll which was an online poll — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) September 13, 2014 On what appears to be first of a few indyref polls out today, the first one is survation, which should relax those at Better Together, as it gives them a larger lead than the ICM phone poll yesterday showed. As the tweet above notes,…
Why the “impossible” could happen Labour has won most votes at a general election before and come out behind on seats. It happened in 1951, when Attlee’s Labour polled over 13.9m votes: around a quarter of a million more than Churchill’s Conservatives, who nonetheless formed a majority government (and for that matter, more than Labour has ever polled in any other election). A lot has changed since then and the conventional wisdom is that such an outcome is no longer…