The next election result is likely to be a strange one, as the following Ipsos-Mori tweet alludes to No gov increase in vote share since 1955, no opposition in office after 1 term out since 1931, no 2 hung parliaments in a row since 1910… — Ipsos MORI (@IpsosMORI) September 22, 2014 (On a follow up tweet they noted that it should read no majority government, Wilson’s calling of a swift 2nd election in 1974 produced a small uptick for…
There’s been a sharp move to LAB since last poll in June A new ComRes / ITV News poll of the 40 most marginal Labour-Conservative constituencies, shows Labour holding an 11 point lead over the Conservatives. At the 2010 General Election the two parties were tied on 37% across these 40 seats so the swing is 5.5% The latest figures together with comparisons on GE2010 and the last such poll by ComRes in June are shown in the chart above….
There’s a 6 point swing from Con to Lab in this polling – This would put Ed Miliband into Downing Street with a majority of 62, assuming UNS. The @LordAshcroft polling pic.twitter.com/KcMyqbTeEO — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) September 28, 2014 It also makes for unpleasant reading for the Lib Dems, as Lord Ashcroft notes, A lesson from the blue-yellow marginals. Incumbency is not enough, it appears that the Yellows are on course to lose seats to both the Tories and…
Rochester & Strood byelection odds: 2/5 UKIP 3/1 Cons 8/1 Labour — Ladbrokes Politics (@LadPolitics) September 28, 2014 My initial thinking is to back the Tories and Labour, based on the following tweets last night, and well Labour could come through the middle. Hopefully other bookies will open markets on this by election. No 10 source on the Mark Reckless byelection: "We would hope to win it" — Sam Coates Times (@SamCoatesTimes) September 27, 2014 (Significant because No10 don't say that about…
Here’s a preview of what to expect (Note these are my selected highlights) Just over a quarter of those who voted Conservative in 2010 said they would vote for a different party in an election tomorrow. Nearly three-quarters of these now support Ukip, with most of the remainder going to Labour. Most of those who have switched from the Tories say they will still consider voting for the party next May. About 1 in 8 of those who did not…
Today reminds me of the 1990s and the end of John Major’s administration. First up was Mark Reckless’ defection to UKIP and in the last hour or so, Brooks Newmark, the Conservative minister for civil society, resigns after being caught sending explicit photographs of himself to women over the internet. For those who were optimistic that the Tories would remain in power post May 2015, today probably extinguished those hopes. I still think there’s one defection to come, timed for maximum…
Not the start Cameron wanted before the Tory conference Mark Reckless Tory MP defects to UKIP — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) September 27, 2014 UPDATE Mark Reckless follows the Carswell principle and forces a by-election in his seat. — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) September 27, 2014 UPDATE II – VIDEO OF RECKLESS ANNOUNCING HIS DEFECTION UPDATE III – constituency phone polling by Survation in Rotherham, Boston & Skegness and North Thanet New constituency phone polling by @Survation in Rotherham, Boston…
Is Labour keeping its powder dry or was that all there is? Like many a football team 2-1 up in a cup tie with ten minutes to go, a cautious defensiveness seems to have settled over the Labour Party, judging by their conference just gone. The contrast with last year’s headline-grabbing energy price freeze policy was stark. The big announcements were to increase the minimum wage by about 4p a year more than the average RPI rate for the current…