Whilst UKIP will be delighted by this, there’s a few things to note Mark Reckless’ share of the vote is down nearly 10% from the general election A lead of 9% compares poorly to the 44% lead UKIP/Douglas Carswell had in the Clacton Survation poll This leads me to conclude that my assumption that Mark Reckless is no Douglas Carswell in terms of popularity in his seat the way Douglas Carswell is regarded in Clacton. I expect the Labour supporters…
It’s still a possibility – by accident or design Lame ducks. Britain’s not supposed to have them given that there are no term limits for ministers and for that matter, no formal terms at all as far as governments are concerned: they just carry on until they resign or are ousted. Even so, final sessions of a parliament has rarely been particularly fruitful times, partly because the government’s main priorities will have already been dealt with but mainly because the…
GE2015 will see the return of big time tactical voting Because so much has been going on politically in the past few days very little attention has been paid to the latest round of marginals polling that was published by Lord Ashcroft last Sunday afternoon. The focus was on Lib Dem seats and the chart above is based on Lord A”s aggregate data from 17 separate polls. We’ve talked so often before about the collapse of the Lib Dem vote…
My latest article Are manufactured public spats in both coalition partners' interest? http://t.co/aLo8D5uXjc pic.twitter.com/WBbsRl9QdC — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) October 3, 2014 Surely the Lib Dems can’t go on like this polling in the single digits? I’ve always been optimistic on the Lib Dems doing well in 2015, and the Ashcroft marginals polling in the past shows them doing better in the seats they hold than the national polling would suggest. My expectation for 2014 was if we started seeing the…
The fundamentals remain: LAB’s LD firewall hasn’t been touched Undoubtedly a CON lead with another pollster, YouGov, is a big moment and given it comes after Cameron’s well received conference speech will give cheer to the blues. This morning’s Sun poll with the Tories 1% ahead means that within the past months Ashcroft, ICM, Ipsos-MORI and now YouGov have all had blue leads at one point or another. There’s little doubt that Cameron’s speech has been well received and that…
Llandaff North on Cardiff (Labour Defence) Result: Labour 898 (50% -2%), Llandaff North Independents 419 (23% -1%), UKIP 204 (11%), Conservatives 136 (8% +5%), Liberal Democrats 134 (7% -9%) Labour HOLD with a majority of 479 (27%) on a swing of 0.5% from Labour to Llandaff North Independents Windermere on Cumbria (Liberal Democrat Defence) Result: Liberal Democrats 1,061 (52% -10%), Conservatives 810 (39% +20%), Independent 123 (6%), Green 61 (3%) Liberal Democrat HOLD with a majority of 251 (12%) on…
The changes are from the 2010 General Election I think Labour will be relieved and delighted with this comfortable hold and increase on their 2010 share of the vote, UKIP will be delighted with the increase, that they can do well in traditional Labour heartlands and that they aren’t just disgruntled Tories. All the odds on Heywood and Middleton are available here. But the major polling news this evening is this Tonight's Sun/YouGov has the Tories ahead for the first…
Llandaff North on Cardiff (Labour Defence) Result of last election to council (2012): Labour 46, Liberal Democrats 16, Conservatives 7, Indepdendents 4, Plaid Cymru 2 (Labour overall majority of 17) Result of ward at last election (2012): Emboldened denotes elected Labour 1,244, 1,156 (52%) Llandaff North Independents 607, 507 (24%) Liberal Democrats 375, 356 (16%) Conservatives 154 (3%) Plaid Cymru 141 (3%) Greens 101 (2%) Candidates duly nominated: David Cogan (Llandaff North Independents), Pueter Hudson (Con), Ann Rowland-Jones (Lib Dem),…