By-Election Preview : October 9th 2014

By-Election Preview : October 9th 2014

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Waterloo on Blackpool (Conservative defence) Result of council at last election (2011): Labour 27, Conservatives 14, Liberal Democrats 1 (Labour majority of 12) Result of ward at last election (2011) : Emboldened denotes elected Labour 937, 659 Conservatives 793, 728 Liberal Democrats 263 Candidates duly nominated: John Braithwaite (UKIP), Kathy Ellis (Lab), Mike Hodkinson (Lib Dem), Jack Renshaw (BNP), Derek Robertson (Con) Bicknacre with East and West Hanningfield on Chelmsford (Conservative defence) Result of council at last election (2011): Conservatives…

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YouGov on Labour’s recent policy announcements

YouGov on Labour’s recent policy announcements

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YouGov asked about Labour’s recent policy announcements Thinking about policies being offered by the Labour party, regardless of whether you personally support the policies or not, which of the following policies do you think will do most to increase the Labour party’s support. Voters were asked to pick one or two. Few think the "mansion tax" policy is a vote-winner for Labour: our latest @TimesRedBox poll – http://t.co/0zHmHOf3qc pic.twitter.com/wZhWQiJJTj — YouGov (@YouGov) October 9, 2014 I have to admit that I was surprised to…

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Corporeal asks What will UKIP look like the rest of the way?

Corporeal asks What will UKIP look like the rest of the way?

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  It seems likely that we are on the edge of a new stage in UKIP’s existence, with Douglas Carswell looking likely to become the party’s second MP (Bob Spink’s legacy as the answer to that political trivia question is safe) and the first to be elected as a UKIP candidate. The polling is so overwhelming that Simon Hughes is humourously cheering on the Tories in the hopes of holding onto his record for the largest swing in UK political…

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Guest Slot from Peter the Punter: Matthew and Peter Go To The Seaside – with a Marf cartoon

Guest Slot from Peter the Punter: Matthew and Peter Go To The Seaside – with a Marf cartoon

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Clacton doesn’t look like being the most exciting of elections. Matthew Shadwick [Shadsy] of Ladbrokes was kind enough to invite me along on a visit to the scene of one of tomorrow’s by-elections. I wondered whether he might need help collecting a flood of money, or maybe he just wanted some company while he stood outside the firm’s shop on Pier Avenue with his board optimistically offering odds of 1/50 UKIP, 14/1 Conservative and 33/1 Labour. We’d arranged to meet…

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Henry G Manson: Words and the world of workers – how Labour should respond to UKIP

Henry G Manson: Words and the world of workers – how Labour should respond to UKIP

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  The debate about UKIP is hotting up in Labour circles. UKIP are demonstrating they can get past Labour’s defences in a lot of traditional working class communities in a way the Tories never could. A few years ago the purple party were dismissed as ‘the BNP in blazers’ and a party with an appeal limited to southern leafy shires. Not now. Now UKIP are genuinely challenging in northern towns like Rotherham and Grimsby and have made enormous progress in…

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Is Clegg set to announce his departure today?

Is Clegg set to announce his departure today?

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Some interesting movements over at the bookies   @MSmithsonPB Still 5/1 with Ladbrokes, if anyone's interested. — Ladbrokes Politics (@LadPolitics) October 8, 2014 Clegg NOT to lead LibDems into GE2015 price slashed from 13/2 to 2/1 after flood of bets overnight http://t.co/oSACEkpCfV — Paddy Power Politics (@pppolitics) October 8, 2014 Rumour mill continues to point to Nick Clegg announcing his departure today. Bet available at 5/6 here: http://t.co/ek1hEO3PHu — Paddy Power Politics (@pppolitics) October 8, 2014 It is worth checking…

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Clegg’s big day

Clegg’s big day

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So what will be the big surprise(s) from Clegg’s speech. Clegg's big day, what can we expect? http://t.co/rkg0RfVb3n pic.twitter.com/neID2svtnJ — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) October 8, 2014 I expect the issue that damaged the Lib Dems from the start, tuition fees will get an airing, as that probably helped defined the Lib Dems in government, but as he apologised in the past with no benefit, it might be a mistake to bring it up again as it might remind a certain…

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Tonight’s YouGov has Labour regaining the lead

Tonight’s YouGov has Labour regaining the lead

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There’ll be relief for the Reds that they Tory lead hasn’t lasted longer. YouGov/Sun poll tonight: big respite for nervous Ed Miliband as Labour regain the lead, for now at least. LAB 34%, CON 32%, UKIP 15%, LD 8%. — Tom Newton Dunn (@tnewtondunn) October 7, 2014 As ever, conference polling can be volatile. Hopefully, we’ll see the Ipsos-Mori phone in the next few days, which will give us further insight into the lie of the political land. TSE