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Detailed data from Survation for Southern England has UKIP on 37.6% four pts ahead of the Tories — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 11, 2014 Survation/MoS poll has 30.3% of men backing UKIP compared with 18.9% of women — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 11, 2014 The big polling question tonight is why there’s such a big difference in the UKIP shares. Opinium 17%, YouGov 16% with Survation on 25%. Chart updated to include Survation with UKIP on record 25% for any…

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Amazing betting odds on the CON leadership in Oct 1974 from the BBC re-run of GE1974 results programme. Maggie 50/1 pic.twitter.com/epdoKJmV5y — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 11, 2014 Did you get on? I certainly didn’t The BBC Parliament Channel has been re-running the October 1974 General Election results programme as part of its intermittent series of playing back old elections. I love them and you learn so much simply from seeing how things were seen then. A common feature of…

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Some comfort for the Tories. UKIP lost two of the three council elections it was defending last night. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 10, 2014 On the Betfair exchange punters give rate UKIP's chance of winning Rochester & Strood at 75%. CON full postal primary to select candidate — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 10, 2014 William Hill http://t.co/orbZ1dFWfn odds on next UKIP leader 5/2 D CARSWELL 4/1 P O’FLYNN 5/1 D JAMES 6/1 S WOOLFE 7/1 P NUTTALL — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 10, 2014…

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Waterloo on Blackpool (Conservative defence) Result: Conservatives 406 (34%), UKIP 372 (32%), Labour 347 (30%), Liberal Democrats 34 (3%), British National Party 17 (1%) Conservative HOLD with a majority of 34 (2%) Bicknacre with East and West Hanningfield on Chelmsford (Conservative defence) Result: Conservatives 649 (56%), UKIP 359 (31%), Labour 80 (7%), Greens 35 (3%), Liberal Democrats 34 (3%) Conservative HOLD with a majority of 290 (25%) Southgate on Crawley (UKIP defence from Con defection) Result: Labour 733 (44% +3%),…

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Friday's @thetimes #Clacton by-election special edition: The history man: Ukip win gives party first MP pic.twitter.com/tJJNRi8t9V — David Jack (@DJack_Journo) October 10, 2014 Douglas Carswell tells Sky News that "Clacton result shows a profound change in British politics" #skybyelection https://t.co/vOtryZQESt — Sky News (@SkyNews) October 10, 2014 But the real sensation, as Carswell said, was UKIP getting so close in Heywood & Middleton Here's the full #HeywoodAndMiddleton result where Labour hold the seat on a 36% turnout #bbctw pic.twitter.com/KIN27VM1Ym —…

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