Labour insider, Henry G Manson, on the changed mood within the movement about EdM

Labour insider, Henry G Manson, on the changed mood within the movement about EdM

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The leader renews his vows with the party & role as underdog The grassroots response to Ed Miliband’s recent leadership uncertainties showed more enthusiasm for his leadership than at any other time – including at the point of his election. While certain MPs were wobbling, the party’s foot soldiers and supporters were bashing out 60,000 tweets of support. Yes, Labour folk are suckers for an underdog, but this felt different. There were reasons why they backed him. The stance on…

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Beware the over-prompting of Mark Reckless and UKIP in Rochester by-election polls

Beware the over-prompting of Mark Reckless and UKIP in Rochester by-election polls

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"@cgi247: Mark Reckless on the campaign trail in Rochester #UKIP pic.twitter.com/qUcjwth85k" — Mark Reckless (@MarkReckless) November 4, 2014 The intro to voting questions in the Ashcroft poll As you may know, the Member of Parliament for Rochester & Strood, Mark Reckless, has announced that he is leaving the Conservative Party and joining the UK Independence Party (UKIP). He has therefore decided to resign as an MP and to fight the resulting by-election in Rochester & Strood as the UKIP candidate….

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Nighthawks is now open

Nighthawks is now open

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Home of the web’s best political conversation Why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks. If you’re a lurker, why not delurk tonight. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant link) Nigel Farage reinforces David Cameron’s own anti-Ukip squeeze message Is the Blairite group Progress plotting to back Chuka Umunna in a leadership bid? The limits of Hashtag Loyalty Ed Miliband might…

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Just when it looked as though LAB had got through its leadership troubles Ipsos-MORI has worst poll for party since GE10

Just when it looked as though LAB had got through its leadership troubles Ipsos-MORI has worst poll for party since GE10

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The Ipsos-MORI monthly poll has the worst figures for LAB of any since 2010 pic.twitter.com/JkrwKdTOhf — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 12, 2014 EdM's net Ipsos-MORI leader satisfaction ratings 8% worse than Nick Clegg's pic.twitter.com/4z6AVFhety — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 12, 2014

The “any other” government option on this new Betfair market is worth a punt

The “any other” government option on this new Betfair market is worth a punt

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Given huge uncertainty the "any other government/coalition" option seems the value bet on this new Betfair market pic.twitter.com/u36aucSQPx — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 12, 2014 I’m betting on the final option on Betfair’s post GE2015 government market simply because of the massive uncertainty and how unlikely it is that either the red or blue teams will be able to govern on their own. To take one example which would make me a winner is the DUP contingent of MPs. There…

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PB Nighthawks is now open

PB Nighthawks is now open

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Home of the web’s best political conversation Why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks. If you’re a lurker, why not delurk tonight. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant link) Most Tories now expect a party schism over Europe. After the ructions over the EU arrest warrant, the only question is whether the split can be postponed till after the 2015 election…

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Ashcroft Rochester poll has Reckless on course to win next week’s by-election for UKIP but for CON to retake the seat next May

Ashcroft Rochester poll has Reckless on course to win next week’s by-election for UKIP but for CON to retake the seat next May

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The GE15 finding will be a deterrent for other potential defectors The detail of the Ashcroft Rochester poll are jjust out and feature in the chart above. The 12% UKIP lead is very much in line with other recent Rochester polling from Survation and ComRes and unless there’s a sharp turnaround in the the next week Mark Reckless looks to set return to Westminster. But there’s a huge sting in the tale for Reckless. The sample was also asked how…

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Extraordinarily both CON and LAB fall to new lows on the Betfair GE2015 market AT THE SAME TIME

Extraordinarily both CON and LAB fall to new lows on the Betfair GE2015 market AT THE SAME TIME

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LAB chances of overall majority at GE2015 fall to new low, a 23.2% chance, on the Betfair exchange pic.twitter.com/CbSO0PuBgM — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 11, 2014 Tory chances of an overall majority at GE2015 fall to a new low, a 14.3% chance, on the Betfair exchange pic.twitter.com/v2PkIlFbd1 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 11, 2014 Another hung parliament is looking even more likely The two charts above represent betting developments that have never happened before. Both the chances of a CON…

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