Survation for the Daily Record SNP 46%-2 LAB 26%+2 CON 14%-2 LD 7%+2 UKIP 4%= On what is set to be a very big polling day the first news we have is of a Survation poll in Scotland for the Daily Record. The numbers are above and show that the SNP still has a very big lead over Labour which would cause Miliband’s party to lose a massive number of seats. Scotland is so important to this election because of…
Nice feature on Betfair Sportsbook coalition bet is your money back it it's a minority government pic.twitter.com/12lT5Q1Uvv — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 18, 2015 Interesting offer from Betfair Sportsbook Betfair Sportsbook, the traditional bookmaker wing of the betting exchange, looks as though it is getting serious about the coming general election and has been putting some interesting markets up. One which several spotted was 4/9 on Nick Clegg retaining Sheffield Hallam which was far better than what was offered elsewhere….
Fun reads for a long plane or train journey Andy Cooke, a longstanding PBer and contributor has written two Kindle counter factuals starting starting with the premise of what would have happened if UKIP had been part of the leaders’ debates at GE2010. The first “The Fourth Lectern: What if UKIP entered the 2010 General Election Debates?” poses the question of if it had happened earlier, in the dying days of a Labour Government? What if four-party politics had taken…
1st Scottish GE2015 poll of year, Panelbase for S Times, has LAB closing the gap behind SNP to just 10%. Wiki list pic.twitter.com/FhU5kxj4Oa — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 18, 2015 The worst poll for the SNP for more than 3 months This morning we have what is undoubtedly the most important poll so far of this general election year – a new survey by Panelbase of Scottish voting intentions which has the Scottish LAB party in its best position since…
First off from Opinium sees UKIP & GRN up CON down Trend chart from the Opinium polling series for the Observer pic.twitter.com/sAw3JBaD3D — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 17, 2015 Opinium for Observer has LAB with 5% lead LAB 33= CON 28-4 UKIP 20+3 LD 7-1 GRN 6+2 With Opinium just out there’ve now been 7 polls since the Ashcroft CON 6% lead survey that was published on Monday afternoon and there’s been nothing from any of the firms that have…
David Herdson’s Saturday column Every Labour government ends up running out of money, though not all go to the trouble of leaving a note to their successor to say so. That they do so is not exactly a feature of left-of-centre politics but it’s not far off: a belief in a big state and increased protection for low-income and vulnerable groups inevitably means lots more spending and because of the protests that would come as a result, a structural deficit…
This the the first general election where new additions to the electoral register have to sign up individually rather than doing it on a household or other form of block basis. Labour, which attracts more young voters than the other parties, is clearly feeling vulnerable about the implementation of a measure that is likely to hurt them most. But this is the law and the party has to work within in it. Raising awareness and running youth campaigns is obviously…
Just over half will stick with Farage’s party The overnight TNS-BMRB poll had some data that I’d not seen before – linking what those sampled said they did in the Euros last May with their current GE15 voting intention. In that election, of course, UKIP ended up with the most votes and most MEPs. The latest polling is moderately helpful to the Tories given that just over a fifth say they’ll be backing the blue team in the general election….