Populus has LAB 3% ahead while Ashcroft has it level pegging

Populus has LAB 3% ahead while Ashcroft has it level pegging

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@LordAshcroft weekly national phone finds more people wanting change than staying with starus quo. Good for LAB? pic.twitter.com/qEjTrAsUUv — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 2, 2015 ENGLAND ONLY shares in today's @LordAshcroft phone poll CON 34 LAB 30 LD 8 UKIP 17 GRN 10 In 2010 CON 11.4% ahead in England — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 2, 2015 A CON lead of just 4% in England could mean 45+ seat losses on a uniform swing. Tories need to be much closer to the 11.4% lead of 2010…

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Even though he’s projecting that LAB will lost three quarters of its Scottish MPs Baxter has the party 32 ahead overall

Even though he’s projecting that LAB will lost three quarters of its Scottish MPs Baxter has the party 32 ahead overall

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Latest from Electoral Calculus http://t.co/yOyYu1w1VO which includes SNP on 47 seats has LAB 29 short of majority pic.twitter.com/EPnC1vZ4hJ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 1, 2015 LAB drops 24 on the month The monthly prediction from the grand-daddy of general election prediction sites, Electoral Calculus, came out overnight and saw a sharp reduction in LAB seats reflecting the latest polling. Martin Baxter, the Cambridge and later City mathematician, has been running this for nearly 20 years and was one of the…

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Could my 50/1 bet on Liz Kendall being the next Labour leader be a winner in the next few months?

Could my 50/1 bet on Liz Kendall being the next Labour leader be a winner in the next few months?

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Is the 20/1 Liz Kendall really the favourite as the next Labour Leader? http://t.co/vvwklygK5o pic.twitter.com/1Jzucb6IXp — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) February 1, 2015 This afternoon it was reported that Liz Kendall has emerged as a new challenger in a future Labour leadership battle, exacerbating Ed Miliband’s difficulties as party leader. Although some Labour figures have dismissed the rumours around the Leicester West MP as “the Blair Witch Project,” she is emerging as a favourite among Blairite MP. Interest in the shadow…

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Labour ruling out ‘negative’ election campaign posters indicates an underlying problem for Labour

Labour ruling out ‘negative’ election campaign posters indicates an underlying problem for Labour

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A Tory election poster that was released earlier on this week. pic.twitter.com/WRXQx8YvBQ — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) January 31, 2015 The Observer is reporting that Labour has scrapped all plans to run billboard posters of David Cameron during the general election campaign in what it says it is a deliberate attempt to avoid “negative personalised adverts” and raise the tone of debate. But the most interesting excerpt from the article is this bit The Observer understands that Labour’s effort to occupy…

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The broad CON-LAB trend in the polls has barely moved since September

The broad CON-LAB trend in the polls has barely moved since September

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The broad CON-LAB trend in the polls has barely moved since September. Wiki chart http://t.co/XvWSExGrQ6 pic.twitter.com/PITg2ELZgm — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 31, 2015 LAB take 3% lead in tonight's YouGov CON 32%, LAB 35%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 15%, GRN 6% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 31, 2015 Tonight's LAB YouGov share of 35% is highest of the year so far — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 31, 2015

Big polling news this afternoon – party leader ratings where Nick Clegg doesn’t come bottom

Big polling news this afternoon – party leader ratings where Nick Clegg doesn’t come bottom

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Farage has net -51% approval rating in Opinium 1st time voters poll – even worse than Clegg on -44 http://t.co/OUBxBC8ARG — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 31, 2015 Amongst 1st voters LAB leads by 15% according to Opinium. GRN on 19% UKIP 3% pic.twitter.com/5qhZTsekae — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 31, 2015 The 15% LAB lead amongst 1st time voters from Opinium compares with LAB & CON level pegging with this age group at GE10 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 31, 2015…

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Remember Cameron’s early vote-Blue-go-green mantra?

Remember Cameron’s early vote-Blue-go-green mantra?

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Telegraph April 21 2006 http://t.co/ikt49rTSv7 pic.twitter.com/XCnmAIFVJr — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 31, 2015 Now the Tory hope is vote Green get blue The pictures still remain a defining moment of his leadership: surrounded by a pack of huskies and against an Arctic backdrop, David Cameron pushing his vote-Blue-go-green message. It seems a long time ago and it is, almost nine years as the clock ticks and an era politically – before the Credit Crunch changed the entire political landscape. That…

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Anybody betting on two general elections this year should first read this analysis by Chris Huhne

Anybody betting on two general elections this year should first read this analysis by Chris Huhne

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The political and legal environment make it very difficult Nearly a year ago the former LD cabinet minister, Chris Huhne, wrote an excellent piece in the Guardian on how the Fixed Term Parliament Act would make it difficult for a second general election shortly after an indecisive outcome – as looks highly likely in May. ” The Fixed-term Parliaments Act means that the prime minister can no longer call an election at a time of his choosing. … Elections are…

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