— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 1, 2015
LAB drops 24 on the month
The monthly prediction from the grand-daddy of general election prediction sites, Electoral Calculus, came out overnight and saw a sharp reduction in LAB seats reflecting the latest polling.
Martin Baxter, the Cambridge and later City mathematician, has been running this for nearly 20 years and was one of the pioneers of politics on the Internet. Where he led the way others have followed.
In recent times he’s been operating an entirely separate model for Scotland which is reflecting the remarkable SNP surge in Scotland which is showing LAB with just 11 Scottish MPs a very sharp reduction on the 41 that they retained in 2010.
He’s applying that to his GB figures which are being adjusted to reflect the fact that they now just represent England and Wales. The Baxter approach is totally mathematical. He has a seat model to which he inputs his latest polling average based on national surveys not constituency polls.
The latest is above and has LAB some way short of majority but with the Tories a fair way back.
We’ll get a greater feel this week about the Scottish situation when Lord Ashcroft’s polls come out.