On the Betfair exchange CON now clear favourites to win most seats With so any polls this week showing CON and LAB level-pegging or the blues ahead it’s inevitable that this was going to show on the betting markets. The money’s been going on them winning most seats and, as can be seen, there’s now quite a difference with the Labour price. In betting terms the last time CON was at these level was in the aftermath of Cameron’s EU…
Sadiq Khan moving up strongly amongst LAB supporters for London Mayor. YouGov/Standard http://t.co/lWsLmUKxQG pic.twitter.com/BF06QhfB2c — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 29, 2015 You can still get 4/1 on him for the nomination Back in March 2013 Henry G Manson tipped Sadiq Khan to be next London Mayor when the price was 33/1. Henry’s record on Labour matters is usually pretty good and I was amongst many who got on at that price. Henry’s reasoning was that Khan had, at the time,…
Marshalwick South on St. Albans (Two Conservative defences) Result of council at last election (2014): Conservatives 29, Liberal Democrats 17, Labour 10, Greens 1, Independent 1 (No Overall Control, Conservatives and Opposition tied) Result of ward at last election (2012): Conservative 929 (40%), Liberal Democrats 651 (28%), Labour 441 (19%), Green 188 (8%), UKIP 123 (5%) Result of ward at last election (2014): Conservative 972 (39%), Labour 573 (23%), Liberal Democrats 486 (19%), Green 258 (10%), UKIP 232 (9%) Candidates…
Is @LordAshcroft the reason why Nick Clegg is still Lib Dem Leader? http://t.co/Ap8I4FAF2x pic.twitter.com/jw6panqrOX — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) January 29, 2015 If so, who will be more grateful? The Lib Dems or their opponents? One of most striking things of this parliament, is the Lib Dems’ unshakeable calm whilst the national opinion polls suggest in May the Lib Dems are headed for an epochal defeat that may end up being a modern Charge of the Light Brigade. We regularly get…
From the Commons Research paper on GE2005 pic.twitter.com/8loUiNhvCe — PolPics (@PolPics) January 25, 2015 There’s little to suggest that such a distortion won’t happen again The blue team has understandably found great cheer and encouragement in the latest polling from a range of firms. The race is undoubtedly getting closer in terms of votes but it’s seats that matter. One of the reasons why I’ve been highlighting England is because of what happened in the 529 seats being fought there…
@LordAshcroft teasing us ahead of his Scottish polling. pic.twitter.com/jHvjVMVJSM — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 28, 2015 Ever since the first post-IndyRef Scottish polls came out showing a huge move to the SNP the standard assumptions that were being made about the GE15 outome were put on one side. For although in GB terms the the loss in the LAB vote and increase in the SNP one amounted to less than one percent overall the number of seats involved was enormous….
Many ex-yellows are now going green Over the last two years we’ve been keeping a close eye on the group of swing voters who could have a big impact on the May 7th outcome – those who voted Lib Dem in 2010 but have now switched to Labour. In my latest calculation, for January, the number has dropped to a low point. This is not the sort of trend that you can easily discern from a single poll which is…