Will this win back the Con to UKIP switchers Dave needs to remain in Downing Street?

Will this win back the Con to UKIP switchers Dave needs to remain in Downing Street?

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Front page of the Sunday Times No 10 plots early Europe vote in 2016 pic.twitter.com/xSdmv9Z6cz — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) February 7, 2015 If the Tories are to remain in power after May 7th, they need to win back the near in one in five voters they’ve lost to UKIP since 2010. The Sunday Times are reporting (££) If the Tories keep the keys to Downing Street, one scenario being considered would see negotiations with EU governments continue this summer to…

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Why’s the Westminster bubble ignoring the Tory near collapse in England?

Why’s the Westminster bubble ignoring the Tory near collapse in England?

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In 2010 CON 11.4% ahead: Latest Opinium has them 2% behind That’s a massive gap to close in a part of the UK where 96% of the LAB-CON battlegrounds are. To work out swing you look the change in party figures from the last election an divide by 2. So here LAB is up 6.9% with Opinium in England and the Tories down 6.5%. So that makes a swing of 6.7% On UNS this would give LAB enough seats to…

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Lord Ashcroft finds errors in his Doncaster N, Thanet S & Hallam polling. Clegg 3% behind

Lord Ashcroft finds errors in his Doncaster N, Thanet S & Hallam polling. Clegg 3% behind

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@LordAshcroft 's statement on the corrections he's had to make to his Dec polling of Hallam, Doncaster N, & Thanet S pic.twitter.com/YVsDDCk1TP — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 7, 2015 So good news for Miliband & Farage – bad news for Clegg @LordAshcroft says that the Thanet S, Doncaster N & Hallam polling carried out by "well-known but relatively new polling firm" not named. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 7, 2015 Revised @LordAshcroft outcome for December Hallam poll LAB 30 LD 27 CON…

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Good news from William Hill about the great PB “Composition of next Government” bets from July 2012

Good news from William Hill about the great PB “Composition of next Government” bets from July 2012

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Those people who bet on "other" with Hills on this market in July 2012 must now be looking forward to a big payout. pic.twitter.com/N1DQaTFref — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 2, 2015 In view of the way politics have developed in the past six months those who bet on “other” in the William Hill “Composition of Net Government” market in July 2012 have started to think that there’s a nice pay-out to come in May. I’ve got several bets on at…

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Local By-Election Result : February 5th 2015

Local By-Election Result : February 5th 2015

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Birmington on Derbyshire (Lab Defence) Tricia Gilby (Labour) 1,293 votes (62% -7%) Paul Stone (United Kingdom Independence Party) 380 votes (18%, no candidate in 2013) Mick Bagshaw (Independent) 157 votes (8%) John Ahern (Liberal Democrat) 135 votes (6% -3%) Lewis Preston (Conservative) 120 votes (6% -5%) Labour HOLD with a majority of 913 votes (44%) on a swing of 12% from Labour to UKIP

Three months to go and focus moves to what should be good for LAB – the NHS

Three months to go and focus moves to what should be good for LAB – the NHS

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Ipsos-MORI Issues Index is unique in that those sampled are asked to name the issues without prompting. pic.twitter.com/eVkyN7LlTN — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 6, 2015 Ipsos-MORI Issues Index: Where the huge jump in concern about the NHS has come from. pic.twitter.com/RDxV18G0Jl — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 6, 2015 Ipsos-MORI Issus Index. How concern about NHS breaks down amongst different groups pic.twitter.com/ir0PP1pAsu — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 6, 2015 This polling has been carried out in exactly the same way for…

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How MPs with bigger majorities are more likely to be non-locals and much less likely to be women

How MPs with bigger majorities are more likely to be non-locals and much less likely to be women

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Thanks to Ralph Scott (‏@ralphascott) of Demos for this interesting study of MPs ahead of the election. I suppose one reason is that in the more marginal seats there are likely to be more selection contests because there’s a much better chance that they will change hands at a general election. It is interesting that the one Tory cabinet minister who is most vulnerable in May is Nicky Morgan who sits for the LAB-CON battleground of Loughborough. Mike Smithson For…

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The January PB Poll Average – closing in on a double crossover?

The January PB Poll Average – closing in on a double crossover?

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The Tories and Greens are the month’s winners In the four and a half years since the general election, there’ve been four crossovers in the polls, blips excluded. Labour took the lead from the Conservatives in the autumn of 2010, the Tories briefly regained it following the EU Treaty veto at the end of 2011 before Labour recaptured the pole position in February 2012 which they’ve held since. A year later, UKIP overtook the Lib Dems for third and have…

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