Local By-Election Preview : February 5th 2015

Local By-Election Preview : February 5th 2015

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Brimington on Derbyshire (Lab Defence) Result of council at last election (2013): Labour 43, Conservatives 18, Liberal Democrats 3 (Labour majority of 22) Result of ward at last election (2013): Labour 1,857 (69%), Conservatives 301 (11%), Liberal Democrats 250 (9%), Independent (Mullins) 175 (6%), Independent (Mann) 119 (4%) Candidates duly nominated: John Ahern (Lib Dem), Mick Bagshaw (Ind), Tricia Gilby (Lab), Lewis Preston (Con), Paul Stone (UKIP) Derbyshire has always been called a Labour heartland council (and yet despite that…

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Marf on the Ukaine crisis and NATO meeting

Marf on the Ukaine crisis and NATO meeting

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As NATO meets with the Ukraine crisis looking gives her take pic.twitter.com/lTiQD5g2xV — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 5, 2015 If you would like to purchase one of Marf’s prints or originals, please contact her here. My latest polling column for Betfair. http://t.co/j3YxTIDwdf — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 5, 2015

The big difference between the UNITE and Lord Ascroft Hallam polls was the latter’s two stage voting question

The big difference between the UNITE and Lord Ascroft Hallam polls was the latter’s two stage voting question

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Response to Ashcroft first question Similar to Survation. The @LordAshcroft Sheffield Hallam poll before the 2nd seat specific question was put. pic.twitter.com/dXFjtA7d4l — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 5, 2015 Second stage when it’s candidates in specific seats The @LordAshcroft Hallam poll after the constituency specific question was put. LD ahead but not by much pic.twitter.com/GxfQ3SMnSO — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 5, 2015 The overnight UNITE/Survation Sheffield poll which had LAB with a 9% lead highlights the very different approaches of…

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LAB most seats slips to just a 40% chance making it the best value GE2015 bet

LAB most seats slips to just a 40% chance making it the best value GE2015 bet

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Punters on Betfair exchange pile on CON most seats and LAB slips to a 40% chance pic.twitter.com/cQruKHRokl — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 5, 2015 The fundamentals stay with the red team After yesterday’s Lord Ashcroft Scottish polling and last night’s YouGov recording a CON lead the money on the general election betting markets has moved to the Tories. The overall outcome is, of course, still for a hung parliament but CON most seats has now become a firmer favourite on…

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Clegg 10% behind LAB in Sheffield Hallam according to UNITE/Survation poll

Clegg 10% behind LAB in Sheffield Hallam according to UNITE/Survation poll

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UNITE poll carried out by Survation has LAB with 12% lead over Nick Clegg in Sheffield Hallam. LAB 33, LD 23, CON 22, UKIP 9 GRN 12 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 4, 2015 So after a dreadful day of polling for LAB the UNITE/Survation Hallam poll will come as some relief for EdM's team — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 4, 2015 The previous poll of Hallam, by Lord Ashcroft in December, had Clegg 3% ahead — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB)…

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Night hawks is now open

Night hawks is now open

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Home of the web’s best political conversation On A Night Like This, why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks. If you’re a lurker, this thread is Especially For You. If you’re thinking of Sticking To The Better The Devil You Know, you’ll find posting on PB is a cause for Celebration. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant link) Memo to the…

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Real worrying thing for LAB about the Ashcroft Scottish polling is that its MPs are not getting any incumbency bonus

Real worrying thing for LAB about the Ashcroft Scottish polling is that its MPs are not getting any incumbency bonus

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Contrast that with the LD-held seats One of the great hopes of the Ashcroft Scottish polling was that it might flag up whether there’d be tactical voting or whether incumbent MPs would get a bonus. Lord A asks two voting questions. The first is a standard one while the latter asked respondents to think specifically about the seat and the candidates who might stand. I wondered whether we’d see an pro-Union tactical voting or whether long-standing LAB MPs would see…

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Details of all 14 seats from the first round of the Lord Ashcroft Scottish polling

Details of all 14 seats from the first round of the Lord Ashcroft Scottish polling

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The only conclusion: Labour is set to get hammered The @LordAshcroft Scottish polling that's just been published is only the first round and covers mainly areas where YES did well in IndyRef — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 4, 2015 The @LordAshcroft Scottish polling pic.twitter.com/j9bZrVFf55 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 4, 2015 pic.twitter.com/AorImxfNSy — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 4, 2015 The @LordAshcroft Scottish polling pic.twitter.com/e0G7bWI41O — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 4, 2015 The @LordAshcroft Scottish polling pic.twitter.com/StconhCurk — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB)…

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