Henry G Manson says that in past fortnight we’ve seen a different EdM with an effective gameplan

Henry G Manson says that in past fortnight we’ve seen a different EdM with an effective gameplan

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@Ed_Miliband kicks off by going with the tax avoidance issue pic.twitter.com/b7p8pp0pNC — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 11, 2015 Why he’s becoming like tennis player Lleyton Hewitt at his prime It’s easy to look at British politics as though it were boxing. Journalists will often speak of whether there were any ‘knock out blows’ in Prime Minister’s. Instead I look at the it through the prism of sport I love, which PB old hands know is tennis. Of course there are…

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At this stage in 2010 bullish punters pushed the betting to a CON majority of 36 completely in defiance of the polling

At this stage in 2010 bullish punters pushed the betting to a CON majority of 36 completely in defiance of the polling

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3 months before 2010 election betting markets predicted Con maj 36 http://t.co/82hyWOedHW pic.twitter.com/wJNzaTFY06 Thx @MikeSmithsonPB — John Rentoul (@JohnRentoul) February 13, 2015 Are CON punters being grossly optimistic yet again? Last night John Rentoul asked me what had happened in the betting at this stage of the 2010 campaign and I dug up the above – an index that I created and reported regularly on here based on the spread betting and Betfair line prices. At this stage in the…

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Local By-Election Results: February 12th 2015

Local By-Election Results: February 12th 2015

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Bar Hill on Cambridgeshire (Con Defence) Lynda Harford (Con) 787 (46% +1%) Martin Hale (UKIP) 251 (15% -7%) Fiona Whelan (Lib Dem) 238 (14% +6%) Alex Smith (Lab) 235 (14% unchanged) Claudia Roland (Green) 200 (12% +3%) Conservative HOLD with a majority of 536 (31%) on a swing of 4% from UKIP to Con Oswestry East on Shropshire (Con Defence) John Price (Con) 629 (47% +3%) Claire Norris (Lab) 247 (19% -4%) Duncan Kerr (Green) 231 (17% no candidate in…

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CON to LAB swing in 40 key marginals moves to 4.5% according to new ComRes ITV poll

CON to LAB swing in 40 key marginals moves to 4.5% according to new ComRes ITV poll

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Tonight's ComRes ITV News poll of 40 key marginal represents CON to LAB swing of 4.5% pic.twitter.com/98KhgExcMP — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 13, 2015 New ComRes poll of 40 most marg Lab/Con seats: Con 31% (NC), Lab 40% (+1), LD 8% (+1), UKIP 15% (-3), Green 5% (+1). In 2010, Con/Lab on 37% — Stephen Tall (@stephentall) February 13, 2015 Just 12% tell ComRes ITV marginals poll that the key factor in voting choice is which party leader will make…

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LAB might be edging up in all recent polls – but punters staying solidly with CON taking most seats

LAB might be edging up in all recent polls – but punters staying solidly with CON taking most seats

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Latest betting Goodish polling news for LAB not affecting the betting. Seat spreads from @SportingIndexhttp://bit.ly/1DHtmVS pic.twitter.com/1WJc51glb3 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 13, 2015 Latest Betfair exchange prices have LAB seats a 43% chance. Value bet given polls. pic.twitter.com/ePz5UMaqWR — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 13, 2015 Latest polls Populus online has LAB 34 CON 31 LD 9 UKIP 14 GRN 6 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 13, 2015 LAB After yesterday's YouGov with a 1% lead tonight's has CON 31 LAB 34 LD 7 UKIP 15 GRN 7 — Mike…

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Back at GE2010 polls from the second half of Feb 2010 proved to be pretty good pointers to the result

Back at GE2010 polls from the second half of Feb 2010 proved to be pretty good pointers to the result

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Will the same be repeated this May? With so many polls coming out as we get closer to the big day I thought it might be useful to check back at the regular pollsters from the last election to see how their surveys from the second half of February compared with the actual result. The YouGov daily poll started at this time and for that I have taken and average. I have only included the established pollsters from then which…

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Local By-Election Preview : February 12th 2015

Local By-Election Preview : February 12th 2015

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Bar Hill on Cambridgeshire (Con Defence) Result of council at last election (2013): Conservatives 32, Liberal Democrats 14, United Kingdom Independence Party 12, Labour 7, Independents 4 (No Overall Control, Conservatives short by 3) Result of ward at last election (2013): Conservatives 1,175 (45%), United Kingdom Independence Party 570 (22%), Labour 352 (14%), Green 242 (9%), Liberal Democrat 219 (8%), Monster Raving Loony 28 (1%) Candidates duly nominated: Martin Hale (UKIP), Lynda Harford (Con), Claudia Roland (Green), Alex Smith (Lab),…

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Marf on tax planning

Marf on tax planning

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http://t.co/O5nX7RL9vb's Marf gives her take on tax planning. pic.twitter.com/KsiS1JJecK — TSE (@TSEofPB) February 12, 2015 If you would like to purchase one of Marf’s prints or originals, please contact her here.