Lord Ashcroft’s 160+ seat polls are already making it a very different election and could impact on results

Lord Ashcroft’s 160+ seat polls are already making it a very different election and could impact on results

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For potential tactical voters they provide a guide what to do One of the many unique features of May 7th is the polling. We’ve never had so much and we’ve never seen so many studies of individual battlegrounds. Lord Ashcroft alone has produced more than 160 of them and there is hardly a key seat where we haven’t got any information. At GE2010, when there were perhaps half a dozen such polls, the Greens’ victory in Brighton Pavillion showed how…

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The debates stand off: This could have been the afternoon when DC won GE15 or lost it

The debates stand off: This could have been the afternoon when DC won GE15 or lost it

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The debates stand off: This could have been the afternoon when DC won GE15 or lost it http://t.co/PjLT8xY85y pic.twitter.com/iJvgaBbXFP — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 6, 2015 Problem for Cameron is that if he later decides to takes part in the debates it'll look weak because of his earlier stance — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 6, 2015 So now we have it. Number 10 has made its final offer on the TV debates which has been rejected by the broadcasters who say…

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A 7-sided TV debate as proposed by Cameron could go ahead: ITV reported to be considering “breaking ranks” with BBC/Sky

A 7-sided TV debate as proposed by Cameron could go ahead: ITV reported to be considering “breaking ranks” with BBC/Sky

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ITV promotion for 1st debate in 2010 I hear ITV contemplating going unilateral and hosting a 7 way debate as per No10 offer, as they have 1st one. Would send BBC/Sky apoplectic. — Tom Newton Dunn (@tnewtondunn) March 6, 2015 If this report has substance then it will throw the whole issue into the air and be a great victory for Cameron. One debate going ahead with the format laid down by the PM and according his required time-table. Those,…

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Does this explain the Tory optimism about May

Does this explain the Tory optimism about May

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“Labour voters are also generally lukewarm about their leader in a way that Conservatives are not about theirs.” – Opinium The above chart shows how well Dave and badly Ed do among their own supporters, as other pollsters generally find as well. I’m of the view, that Ed’s poor ratings are priced into the voting intention, and that the voting intention is largely correct. We’re going to find out in nine weeks time if it is priced in or not….

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Local By-Election Preview : March 5th 2015

Local By-Election Preview : March 5th 2015

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Kenton on Brent (Con defence) Result of council at last election (2014): Labour 56, Conservatives 6, Liberal Democrats 1 (Labour majority of 49) Result of ward at last election (2014) : Emboldened denotes elected Conservatives 1,798, 1,796, 1,669 (53%) Labour 1,139, 1,040, 946 (32%) Liberal Democrats 221, 153, 125 (5%) Green 348 (11%) Candidates duly nominated: Michaela Lichten (Green), Vincent Lo (Lab), Michael Maurice (Con), Bob Wharton (Lib Dem) Brent (for the most part) has been a Conservative / Labour…

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Marf on the debates

Marf on the debates

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Latest @LadPolitics odds on whether a debate involving at least Dave & Ed will take place http://t.co/hyfbkvi3BO pic.twitter.com/2iLMfALAAz — TSE (@TSEofPB) March 5, 2015 Ed Miliband is prepared to take part in a head to head debate on his own says @LucyMPowell #wato — norman smith (@BBCNormanS) March 5, 2015 TSE

Is this going to backfire for Dave as the one and only debate could be in three weeks time?

Is this going to backfire for Dave as the one and only debate could be in three weeks time?

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Dave welcoming the debates 5 years ago It is being reported Downing Street has issued a “final offer” to broadcasters over the election television debates, declaring in a pointed email that David Cameron will take part in just one debate featuring seven party leaders before the formal campaign begins next month….. …..The intervention by the prime minister’s director of communications, Craig Oliver, prompted an angry backlash. Nick Clegg accused Cameron of trying to hold the debates to ransom by dictating…

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The latest batch of Ashcroft marginals polling finds some good news for Labour in the Con/Lab Marginals

The latest batch of Ashcroft marginals polling finds some good news for Labour in the Con/Lab Marginals

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But the SNP surge continues as even Gordon Brown and Charles Kennedy’s seats goes to the SNP but Jim Murphy holds on. Labour will be delighted that the swing to then in the English marginals is more than the national polling implies .@LordAshcroft says very bad news for Scottish Labour but looks like "@jimmurphymp will buck the trend and hang on" pic.twitter.com/zgkPynwNtr — Marcus A. Roberts (@marcusaroberts) March 4, 2015 With a 1% lead @LordAshcroft has @Jessica_Asato winning Norwich North…

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