“Labour voters are also generally lukewarm about their leader in a way that Conservatives are not about theirs.” – Opinium
The above chart shows how well Dave and badly Ed do among their own supporters, as other pollsters generally find as well. I’m of the view, that Ed’s poor ratings are priced into the voting intention, and that the voting intention is largely correct.
We’re going to find out in nine weeks time if it is priced in or not. These types of findings might well explain why particularly on betfair, the prices are much more bullish on the Tories doing better than the current polling suggests.
Opinium have also been tracking this “For a while now we’ve been asking voters to predict the 2015 election with the options being majorities for either big party or a hung parliament with either Labour or the Conservatives as the largest party. We defined a â€œwinâ€ as a party winning a majority or being the largest party in a hung parliament.”
This probably also probably explains the Tory optimism and expectation about May and feeds through to betfair.
Back in 2013, when Labour was routinely recording 10-point leads, 54% of voters expected Labour to â€˜winâ€™ vs. just 24% for the Conservatives. Now that both parties are at parity, Labourâ€™s figure has dropped to 33% while the Conservativesâ€™ has risen to 49%.
Among Labour voters themselves, the proportion predicting a win was 82% in 2013 but just 67% do so now. Conservative voters have gone from 60% expecting a win to 82% now.
To an extent this is just voters reading the polls and coverage of them which show that, even if momentum may not exactly be with the Tories, Labour have bled support across the country to the SNP, UKIP and more recently the Greens.
This also feeds into who they expect to be prime minister after the election. Overall Cameron leads Miliband by 46% to 23% but while 75% of Conservatives expect their leader to stay at No. 10, just 47% of Labour voters expect Ed Miliband to replace him.
The full data is available here