Norman Lamb, my long-term bet for Clegg’s replacement, moves a step closer to being a leadership contender

Norman Lamb, my long-term bet for Clegg’s replacement, moves a step closer to being a leadership contender

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Norman Lamb could be the "stop Farron" candidate if there's an early LD leadership fight http://t.co/nnKi8Y4nBh pic.twitter.com/vsRgO7hIWw — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 8, 2015 The Indy on Sunday is reporting this morning that a number of the party’s peers and MPs have approached him about being a candidate should there be a post May 7th leadership contest. It reports: Speaking before the Lib Dem spring conference in Liverpool this week, Mr Lamb admitted he is thinking about running. ‘When people raise…

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The Saturday night polls have the battle very tight

The Saturday night polls have the battle very tight

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Tonight's YouGov for the Sunday Times Con 34 Lab 33 LD 8 UKIP 15 Greens 5 — TSE (@TSEofPB) March 7, 2015 Opinium/Observer: #deadheat Lab 34% (-1), Con 34% (n/c), LibDem 8% (+2), UKIP 14% (n/c), Greens 7% (+1) http://t.co/LxGJVdrwp9 — Opinium Research (@OpiniumResearch) March 7, 2015 ENGLAND ONLY figures from Opinium/Observer poll CON 36 LAB 33 LD 8 UKIP 14 GRN 7 Represents a 4.2% CON to LAB swing in England since GE10 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 7, 2015 My guess is that there won't…

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Guest slot contributor, Stodge, casts his eye on the battle for London

Guest slot contributor, Stodge, casts his eye on the battle for London

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BBC Results 2010 Capital City “Blues” Dr Carl Sagan once said “you have to understand the past to know the present”. Looking at the election battleground that is Greater London and its 73 seats, that quote seems strangely apposite. In 2010, Labour narrowly “won” London in terms of votes but lost a net seven seats to the Conservatives. The swing against the then Government was lower in London than nationally and the latest YouGov poll shows Labour improving its position….

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Lord Ashcroft’s 160+ seat polls are already making it a very different election and could impact on results

Lord Ashcroft’s 160+ seat polls are already making it a very different election and could impact on results

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For potential tactical voters they provide a guide what to do One of the many unique features of May 7th is the polling. We’ve never had so much and we’ve never seen so many studies of individual battlegrounds. Lord Ashcroft alone has produced more than 160 of them and there is hardly a key seat where we haven’t got any information. At GE2010, when there were perhaps half a dozen such polls, the Greens’ victory in Brighton Pavillion showed how…

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The debates stand off: This could have been the afternoon when DC won GE15 or lost it

The debates stand off: This could have been the afternoon when DC won GE15 or lost it

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The debates stand off: This could have been the afternoon when DC won GE15 or lost it http://t.co/PjLT8xY85y pic.twitter.com/iJvgaBbXFP — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 6, 2015 Problem for Cameron is that if he later decides to takes part in the debates it'll look weak because of his earlier stance — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 6, 2015 So now we have it. Number 10 has made its final offer on the TV debates which has been rejected by the broadcasters who say…

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A 7-sided TV debate as proposed by Cameron could go ahead: ITV reported to be considering “breaking ranks” with BBC/Sky

A 7-sided TV debate as proposed by Cameron could go ahead: ITV reported to be considering “breaking ranks” with BBC/Sky

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ITV promotion for 1st debate in 2010 I hear ITV contemplating going unilateral and hosting a 7 way debate as per No10 offer, as they have 1st one. Would send BBC/Sky apoplectic. — Tom Newton Dunn (@tnewtondunn) March 6, 2015 If this report has substance then it will throw the whole issue into the air and be a great victory for Cameron. One debate going ahead with the format laid down by the PM and according his required time-table. Those,…

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Does this explain the Tory optimism about May

Does this explain the Tory optimism about May

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“Labour voters are also generally lukewarm about their leader in a way that Conservatives are not about theirs.” – Opinium The above chart shows how well Dave and badly Ed do among their own supporters, as other pollsters generally find as well. I’m of the view, that Ed’s poor ratings are priced into the voting intention, and that the voting intention is largely correct. We’re going to find out in nine weeks time if it is priced in or not….

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Local By-Election Preview : March 5th 2015

Local By-Election Preview : March 5th 2015

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Kenton on Brent (Con defence) Result of council at last election (2014): Labour 56, Conservatives 6, Liberal Democrats 1 (Labour majority of 49) Result of ward at last election (2014) : Emboldened denotes elected Conservatives 1,798, 1,796, 1,669 (53%) Labour 1,139, 1,040, 946 (32%) Liberal Democrats 221, 153, 125 (5%) Green 348 (11%) Candidates duly nominated: Michaela Lichten (Green), Vincent Lo (Lab), Michael Maurice (Con), Bob Wharton (Lib Dem) Brent (for the most part) has been a Conservative / Labour…

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