Lord Ashcroft becomes the third pollster in a row not to support the YouGov 4% LAB lead poll

Lord Ashcroft becomes the third pollster in a row not to support the YouGov 4% LAB lead poll

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Details from @LordAshcroft poll pic.twitter.com/XJsmUnMxwB — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 30, 2015 There’ve been three published polls since the Sunday Times YouGov LAB 4% lead poll. ComRes had 4% CON lead last night, Populus had the parties level pegging this morning and now Lord Ashcroft has a 2% CON lead. So it is starting to look as though YouGov might have been an outlier. We’ll see what the firm’s latest poll has tonight. It is starting to look as though…

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The official campaign Day 1: The line-up for Thursday night and an interesting betting market for the 7 sided event

The official campaign Day 1: The line-up for Thursday night and an interesting betting market for the 7 sided event

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Via @montie The line up for Thursday night's debate pic.twitter.com/ttXLBB3ktU — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 30, 2015 How do you create interesting betting market for 7 way debate? This from @SportingIndex http://t.co/rSKroIPwt1 pic.twitter.com/wl6zvGgjFM — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 30, 2015 The line up on the stage was decided by lots being drawn this morning. It is hard to work out who has come out best. Farage has Clegg on his left and Miliband on his right though he’s some way…

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If teachers are as hostile to the Tories as they were 16 months ago that could have a huge impact on May 7th

If teachers are as hostile to the Tories as they were 16 months ago that could have a huge impact on May 7th

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At almost exactly this point before GE2010 YouGov had CON ahead with teachers In December 2013 that had become a 41% LAB lead It was said in July that this was why Lynton was behind the Gove sacking During one of the breaks at the big LSE GE forecasting conference on Friday I was asked for suggestions of ideas for interesting polling that could tell us more than what we see in standard surveys or constituency polling. After pondering this…

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Big boost for the Tories in tonight’s ComRes phone poll

Big boost for the Tories in tonight’s ComRes phone poll

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RT @tom_ComRes: Con lead by 4 points as Miliband sees no Paxo bounce – our new poll for @itvnews / @DailyMailUK pic.twitter.com/pTp9GCS0Ty — Andrew Hawkins (@Andrew_ComRes) March 29, 2015 Around twice as many Britons think Cameron is "strong" & "good on TV" compared to Miliband – @dailymailUK / @itvnews pic.twitter.com/QqGONGARKF — Tom Mludzinski (@tom_ComRes) March 29, 2015 Best PM from ComRes phone poll for Mail. Not good for Ed pic.twitter.com/NVsV3kQNx8 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 29, 2015 Confused about the…

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Leanne Wood could be the 2015 Nick Clegg and at 50-1 might be a good punt to win Thursday’s debate

Leanne Wood could be the 2015 Nick Clegg and at 50-1 might be a good punt to win Thursday’s debate

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She has the benefit of not being much known outside Wales Just had a punt with Ladbrokes at 50/1 that Plaid leader, Leanne Wood, will top the quickie polls after Thursday night’s seven-sided debate. She’ll be fresh to a full national audience, has a pleasant manner, and handles herself well on TV. She’ll also attract less of the hostility that some of the others on the platform are likely to attract. The rules ensure that she should get equal time…

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The voting intentions of those who watched Thursday’s programme and those that didn’t

The voting intentions of those who watched Thursday’s programme and those that didn’t

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Lab has 19% lead with who watched on Thurs. 12% Lab lead with who watched some/clips. Con 6% ahead with non viewers pic.twitter.com/cVUJjdXYp3 — TSE (@TSEofPB) March 29, 2015 Nearly 20% of the YouGov respondents watched Thursday’s programme, whereas around only 5% of the public actually watched the programme so this might be what may be somewhat over amplifying Ed’s performance and the Labour lead. What does indicate that is a good poll for Labour and Ed is the relative improvement…

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Tonight’s YouGov has LAB taking 4% lead and Ed getting ratings boost

Tonight’s YouGov has LAB taking 4% lead and Ed getting ratings boost

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How the S Times is reporting its YouGov poll. pic.twitter.com/9f4j4iMQ6L — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 28, 2015 LAB takes 4% lead with YouGov in poll all taken after Thurs TV programme LAB 36% Con 32% LD 8% Ukip 13% Green 6 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 28, 2015 Big lift in Miliband’s personal ratings. Best PM 23%, up 4% in a week. (Cameron 35%). Miliband personal rating -28%. Early march it was -48% — Tim Shipman (@ShippersUnbound) March 28, 2015 YouGov poll finds those who…

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Get ready folks for an election to remember….!

Get ready folks for an election to remember….!

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The Intellectually stimulating campaign begins LAB protesters @ CON Launch CON ones @ LAB launch Via @PoliticalPics pic.twitter.com/ktUELzqgsM — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 28, 2015 We should get the first full post debate polls tonight My guess is that the campaigning won’t start in earnest until after Easter and it will only be after then that most people will start to take notice. The final fortnight is, as you’d expect the most intensive. One thing we know is that this will be the…

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