Lab has 19% lead with who watched on Thurs. 12% Lab lead with who watched some/clips. Con 6% ahead with non viewers pic.twitter.com/cVUJjdXYp3
— TSE (@TSEofPB) March 29, 2015
Nearly 20% of the YouGov respondents watched Thursday’s programme, whereas around only 5% of the public actually watched the programmeÂ so this might be what may be somewhat over amplifying Ed’s performance and the Labour lead.
What does indicate that is a good poll for Labour and Ed is the relative improvement in Ed’s ratings, he’s gone from a net minus 46% at the end of February, to net minus 29% today. In the same time frame David Cameron’s ratings have improved by 4% and Nick Clegg’s have improved by 12%. Since last week, Cameron, Miliband and Clegg’s ratings have improved by 3%, 10% and 7% respectively.
Peter Kellner, writing in the Â Sunday Times says of this poll
[It] indicates a swing of more than six percentage points from Conservative to Labour across England and Wales. If this were repeated in every constituency, Labour would gain enough seats to come close to an outright majority, even if it lost badly in Scotland. Labour would end up with 314 MPs and the Tories 251, followed by the Scottish National party (48) and Liberal Democrats (16).
If this poll is a harbinger of the election result, then the 16.5 on a Labour majority on Betfair needs to snapped up PDQ. The next few phone polls with their random selection should give us a better idea. But with three more debates/events, of which Ed is the only attendee, Labour must be feeling confident if he can replicate this kind of win with those who watch the programmes.
The full YouGov data tables are available here