By accident or design, the election’s got a debate series that could work

By accident or design, the election’s got a debate series that could work

Multiple structures will probe the parties & leaders In a little over nine months’ time, the US presidential hopefuls will be campaigning hard in the then snow-bound small rural state of Iowa, the first in a long process of state-wide elections that will ultimately determine the two parties’ nominations. That process has evolved over the years, partly organically, partly by design but the main reason there’s been little wholesale reform in the schedule, despite offerings to that end being put…

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Predicting the election: What the leading academic teams are saying

Predicting the election: What the leading academic teams are saying

Five years ago PBers described the 2010 event as wank fest We got a name check from YouGov polling head Jo Twyman, at the opening of today’s conference at the LSE when different academic groups made their predictions. He recalled that on the thread in 2010 this gathering was described as a wankfest which got a good response. What’s happening is that separate forecasting groups are presenting their findings and explaining how their approaches. The table above shows the main…

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LAB edge a notch up in the “most seats” betting but CON still very strong favourite

LAB edge a notch up in the “most seats” betting but CON still very strong favourite

The “debates” haven’t done either Ed or Dave any harm There’s been a small recovery for LAB in the most seats betting over the past week and since last night’s C4/Sky “debate” that trend has continued. But Labour has a very long way to go on the markets till it reaches parity with the Tories once again. The blues are expected to make progress during the campaign itself and that is reflected in the betting. The spread markets were suspended…

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And the winner so far is – Update ICM calls it for Dave

And the winner so far is – Update ICM calls it for Dave

The winner of tonight's debate was #BattleForNumber10 pic.twitter.com/fBGvcyNiF7 — TSE (@TSEofPB) March 26, 2015 Jeremy Paxman proved why he’s the best in the business. But I do wonder if Ed Miliband’s “Hell Yeah”when Paxman asked him if he was “tough enough to deal with the likes of Putin” maybe the most memorable event from the whole debates and interviews. Whether it is for good or ill, we will soon find out. Though Paxman’s off mic comment at the end to…

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Let the debates begin

Let the debates begin

  Well the interviews at least. You can watch the event live by clicking the youtube video below.   I think Ed will be perceived to be the winner from tonight’s events, because the old maxim of success equals performance minus expectation, and the expecation for Ed is probably lower than it is for David Cameron, especially after David Cameron’s successful performance at PMQs yesterday. Will one or both of them have a surprise in store? I expect the other…

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By election preview 26th of March 2015

By election preview 26th of March 2015

Glenrothes West and Kinglassie on Fife (Lab defence) Result of council at last election (2012) : Labour 35, Scottish National Party 26, Liberal Democrats 10, Independents 4, Conservatives 3 (No Overall Control, Labour short by 5) Result of ward at last election (2012) : E denotes Elected Scottish National Party: Brown 910 E, Walker 349, Grant 941 E (42%) Labour: Craik 708 E, Campbell 1,424 E (41%) Independents: Robertson 147, Taylor 192 (7%) Scottish Pensioners Party: Dawson 271 (5%) Conservative:…

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Marf on the big Commons story on the final day of the Parliament

Marf on the big Commons story on the final day of the Parliament

Whoever’s idea it was it was a mistake The basic fact is that you don’t launch moves like this unless you are going to win. I’ve never been a fan of Bercow but to use what amounted to procedural trickery flew in the face of the way the House operates. What’s clear is that he emerges stronger from this failed attempt. He’s now there as long as he wants. Surely the best thing would have been to have done this…

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A UKIP gain in Dudley N, where the Tories have had candidate troubles, might at 10-3 be a value bet

A UKIP gain in Dudley N, where the Tories have had candidate troubles, might at 10-3 be a value bet

Lord Ashcroft polls This is one of UKIP’s best chances to take a LAB seat We’ve talked a lot about the CON-UKIP battleground but not about the LAB-UKIP one. Certainly the focus of the purples has been on the former but that doesn’t mean there are not opportunities with the latter. One place I’m hearing positive words about is the party’s campaign in Dudley North. I don’t know whether this is based on polling but I think that it might…

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