The marginal seats poll for release 8am tomorrow are Tory held which need a swing to Labour of about 5% to change. Will they be blue or red? — Lord Ashcroft (@LordAshcroft) April 13, 2015 I’m on Radio 4’s Today programme this morning followed by a breakfast briefing on the election so won’t be in a position to report and post on the latest round of Ashcroft seat polling. Above ARE the seats which seem to fit his bill. Mike…
This puts ICM’s 6% CON lead into context I was driving in thick traffic round the M25 and am only just now catching up with this extraordinary afternoon of polling. Lord Ashcroft, who polls weekly by phone and has a weighting structure not too different from ICM. has a very different picture. Both Ashcroft and ICM had 3% leads in their last surveys yet one moved in one direction and the other moved in another To his great credit ICM…
ICM's CON 6% lead will bring LAB down to earth pic.twitter.com/DmRe2JAMmF — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 13, 2015 Will the @LordAshcroft phone poll, due at 4pm support ICM? They broadly similar approaches and ICM often carries out the Lord A fieldwork — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 13, 2015 A good showing for the blues from Lord A, which, last had them 3% ahead, would totally change the election narrative. If not – an outlier — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 13,…
RT @philipjcowley: "Labour will replace the House of Lords with a Senate of the Nations and Regions" (p.69). Good luck with that one… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 13, 2015 @PolProfSteve @MSmithsonPB But having been burnt on it last time, there is no way a mere aspiration will do this time for the LDs. — Philip Cowley (@philipjcowley) April 13, 2015
YouGov/Times poll finds 43% saying NHS would get worse under CON compared with 25% under LAB. Fieldwork after the Tory £8bn extra pledge — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 13, 2015 The latest YouGov Sun poll sees LAB move to a 3% lead CON 33 (-1) LAB 36 (+2) LD 7 (=) UKIP 13 (=) GRN 5 (-1) — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 13, 2015 But could it take a few days to get through? First reaction to the Tory big…
Hillary overwhelming favorite to win Democratic Party presidental nomination. This from Betfair Sportsbook pic.twitter.com/PknJupwC1J — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 12, 2015
The battle for the White House in 2016 looks like being a repeat of 1992 Sky News say Hillary Clinton is today expected to confirm she is running for the Democratic nomination to be the president of the US, effectively firing the starting gun on the 2016 election campaign. The former Secretary of State and First Lady has long been the runaway favourite to be the party’s candidate for the election next November. It is expected she will make the…