For the second weekend in a row UKIP are accused of burying a poll that shows them losing a seat they are expected to win

For the second weekend in a row UKIP are accused of burying a poll that shows them losing a seat they are expected to win

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Mark Reckless on course to lose his seat accordingly to a private poll. http://t.co/FjxsfMBpbj pic.twitter.com/84OU8SbPL4 — TSE (@TSEofPB) April 12, 2015 Will Reckless’ decision to defect turn out to be a reckless one? This polling doesn’t come as a surprise, prior to the by-election last year, Lord Ashcroft’s polling found Reckless winning the by-election but losing at the general election. It does fit in with the wider political narrative, such as last night’s Opinium, UKIP hitting a low that they…

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Policies not leadership will win this election

Policies not leadership will win this election

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Front page of the Mail on Sunday with the Tory policy announcement on IHT pic.twitter.com/bTbs0LobRj — TSE (@TSEofPB) April 11, 2015 Front page of the Independent on Sunday with the Lab policy announcement on tax avoidance pic.twitter.com/JYR3DKJPCt — TSE (@TSEofPB) April 11, 2015   Last night saw the the emergence of a major policy announcement by both the Tories and Labour, these can be seen as the appetising hors-d’oeuvre before the main course that is the manifesto launches in the…

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UKIP drops to 11% as the Tories re-take the lead with Opinium

UKIP drops to 11% as the Tories re-take the lead with Opinium

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CON take lead with OpiniumCon 36% (+3), Lab 34% (+1), Lib Dems 7% (n/c), UKIP 11% (-3), Greens 6% (-1) — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 11, 2015 Opinium leaders approvals ratingCameron -2Miliband -18So very different from what Survation recorded 2 days ago — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 11, 2015 What's really weird is totally different leader approval ratings between Opinium & Survation. Former DC 16% ahead: latter had Ed in lead — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 11, 2015 Survation approval…

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On Grand National day Marf links the big race to the general election

On Grand National day Marf links the big race to the general election

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Please join me in helping Marf buy essential equipment and materials Over the years Marf’s cartoons have enriched the site but unfortunately the only way we’ve been able to help her financially is though encouraging people to buy originals or prints of her work and allocating part of the proceeds when we’ve had a PB appeal. I know Marf incurs costs and at this time as we move towards the general election I am asking PBers to join me in…

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Con+LD=320 is the magic equation for Dave

Con+LD=320 is the magic equation for Dave

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15+ net Con losses and it’s opposition for the Tories For a country which according to Disraeli does not love coalitions, Britain seems to be doing its best to force its politicians into another one. That may well not happen, though not because anyone will gain a majority. None of the four likely largest parties post-election sounds keen on a formal pact where more than one of them has seats around the cabinet table. But whoever ends up on top…

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If this YouGov polling is correct stopping the SNP in Scotland could lead to tactical voting on a scale never seen before

If this YouGov polling is correct stopping the SNP in Scotland could lead to tactical voting on a scale never seen before

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New YouGov/C4 Scottish points to big tactical switch by CON/LAB/LD voters to stop SNP http://t.co/XCKQumcXyF — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 10, 2015 YouGov/C4 Scottish polling finds 31% of LAB voters & 39% of LDs ready to switch to CON if they thought that would stop SNP in their seat — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 10, 2015 YouGov/C4 Scottish polling finds 53% of Tories & 36% of LAB voters ready to switch to LD if they thought that would stop SNP…

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The general election now the UK’s number one story

The general election now the UK’s number one story

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Top Ten Most Noticed news stories this week #TTMN | General Election, for the first time, most noticed news this week pic.twitter.com/gOjYBYoDgm — Populus (@PopulusPolls) April 10, 2015 I do like this weekly Tweet from Populus which can put a lot of things into context. Too often those deeply immersed in politics tend to overstate importance of what seem to them to be major developments to the outside world. This brings it down to earth. At the moment the reference…

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My favourite GE15 spread bet: That there’ll be a CON margin on seats of fewer than 12

My favourite GE15 spread bet: That there’ll be a CON margin on seats of fewer than 12

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Betting sentiment remains solidly with CON double digit seat margin The chart shows the trend on the Sporting Index commons seats spread market over the past few months and as can be seen the Tories have opened a double digit lead which has remained for some weeks. Even yesterday’s poor polls for the Tories did not have much impact. As well as the straight total seats betting as seen above there’s another market I like – CON supremacy over LAB….

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