Is 2015 the year the UK becomes Belgium?

Is 2015 the year the UK becomes Belgium?

Comments 0 Comment

The latest @May2015NS forecast/predictions of the great and the good. pic.twitter.com/ZoYx4GTDzP — TSE (@TSEofPB) April 18, 2015 Is a Grand Coalition the only viable government after the election? Whilst fans of Poirot, TinTin, and the D’Hondt electoral voting system might seem some advantages of the UK becoming more like Belgium, I’m coming to the conclusion that we might not have a viable government possible, particularly if the SNP surge translates into the seat numbers the recent Scottish polling implies. In…

Read More Read More

Tories double their lead with Opinium to 4% – Update but YouGov has Lab 3% ahead

Tories double their lead with Opinium to 4% – Update but YouGov has Lab 3% ahead

Comments 0 Comment

Opinium/Observer fieldwork began just before the debate with “most” responses after it. So the move might reflect it, but all usual caveats — Matt Singh NCP (@MattSingh_) April 18, 2015 The fieldwork started just before Thursday’s debate with most responses after it, tonight’s YouGov which should be out later, was entirely after the debate. This is essentially margin of error changes, but like yesterday’s Survation, it should be heartening for the Tories, especially with the England only polling, it might…

Read More Read More

Tories a 64% chance on Betfair to win most seats but Mliband and Cameron level-pegging on who’ll be the post-election PM

Tories a 64% chance on Betfair to win most seats but Mliband and Cameron level-pegging on who’ll be the post-election PM

Comments 0 Comment

Meanwhile I like this new SPIN market which I suggested to the firm after someone posted the idea on a previous thread. Quite hard to think through the permutations given that 1 is a given. Tonight I’m expecting the ICM Wisdom Index in the Sunday Telegraph and the usual Opinium and YouGov polls. O’m not aware of any other at the moment. How many PMs in 2015? Spread betting market from @SportingIndex http://t.co/rSKroIPwt1Current 1.5-1.7 pic.twitter.com/fZME7H3BMY — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April…

Read More Read More

David Herdson on why it suits all that a debate on the economy is effectively closed down

David Herdson on why it suits all that a debate on the economy is effectively closed down

Comments 0 Comment

Contradictory nuances make it hard for both CON or LAB You might think that the extremely positive employment figures released yesterday would be cause for a great deal of campaigning from the Conservatives, both positively on their record and negatively against Labour. After all, the repeated criticisms and past predictions of doom from the Eds Balls and Miliband can now be set against the facts of the UK having one of the fastest-growing economies in the developed world, record employment,…

Read More Read More

For only the second time ever Survation has CON ahead

For only the second time ever Survation has CON ahead

Comments 0 Comment

The turning of the tide or just sample variation? Survation trend chart including their latest with CON lead pic.twitter.com/CtBrHBYt9Y — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 17, 2015 CON take the lead in D Mirror Survation pollCON 34% (+4); LAB 33% (-2); UKIP 17% (+1); LD 7% (-1); SNP 4% (NC); GRE 3% (-1) — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 17, 2015 This is only the second time Survation has ever shown the Tories in the lead, since they started in 2011… —…

Read More Read More

New Ashcroft Scottish seat polling finds SNP gains from LAB, LD & CON

New Ashcroft Scottish seat polling finds SNP gains from LAB, LD & CON

Comments 0 Comment

Ashcroft. SNP GAIN from CONDumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale pic.twitter.com/5mFt9vew1X — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 17, 2015 Charlie Kennedy’s seat goes to SNP Ashcroft Scottish pollingSNP GAIN Ross, Skye & Charlie Kennedy's seat pic.twitter.com/vojHWw7599 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 17, 2015 Ming’s seat an SNP gain Ashcroft Scottish pollingSNP GAIN NE Fife pic.twitter.com/lfVNzFd4Ug — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 17, 2015 Ashcroft Scottish pollingSNP GAIN E Dunbartonshire pic.twitter.com/E3TvOI1KbZ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 17, 2015 Ashcroft Scottish pollingCON GAIN FROM LD Berwick…

Read More Read More

Announcing PB’s General Election night event + today’s Populus poll

Announcing PB’s General Election night event + today’s Populus poll

Comments 0 Comment

2200-0600 May 7th 2015 – Finborough Arms Kensington This is from Jeff Bell who used to post as Stonch. “Kensington and Chelsea have now granted me and all night licence for the Finborough on May 7th so I can go ahead with an election all-nighter. The event will be ticket only from 10pm when polls close (the pub will be open to the public that day from 5pm however). The cost is £15 and that includes tea and coffee, mineral…

Read More Read More

Even with Scotland will LAB still be able to win more seats than CON for the same national vote share?

Even with Scotland will LAB still be able to win more seats than CON for the same national vote share?

Comments 0 Comment

Profs Chris Hanretty, John Curtice & Phil Cowley at the PSA GE15 briefing pic.twitter.com/qqf3iFqkKx — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 17, 2015 The academic experts are divided over electoral bias One of the massive questions hanging over the May 7th outcome is the impact of what we are all familiar with – electoral bias that has meant that there’s a long history of LAB getting more seats for the same vote share than the Tories. A lot of this has been…

Read More Read More