Who’s won and will it make it any difference to the election campaign?

Who’s won and will it make it any difference to the election campaign?

Comments 0 Comment

It's over. Now we wait for the poll to tell us who have won. pic.twitter.com/ssnQy2qi2l — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 16, 2015 I wonder if Cameron regrets not taking part. pic.twitter.com/fRcUE1tMPN — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 16, 2015 Miliband wins Survation post-debate pollMiliband – 35%Sturgeon – 31%Farage – 27%Bennett – 5%Wood – 2% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 16, 2015 Via @PickardJE Killer poll: Straight contest, Cameron and Miliband to be PM?Cameron – 40%Miliband – 45%DK – 5%Survation/Mirror — Mike…

Read More Read More

Farage the 13/8 betting favourite to “win” tonight’s Challengers’ Debate

Farage the 13/8 betting favourite to “win” tonight’s Challengers’ Debate

Comments 0 Comment

But don’t expect much polling Farage 13/8 PaddyPower Sturgeon 9/4 William Hill Miliband 3/1 Ladbrokes Wood 25/1 Bet 365 Bennett 28/1 Bet 365 It is perhaps an indication of how tonight’s event is being regarded is that there is going to be very little polling. Survation are doing a survey for the Mirror and as far as I know at the moment that is it. So the betting markets on who wins will be based on the Survation findings. I…

Read More Read More

LAB lead up and Ed ratings boost in latest Ipsos-MORI phone poll

LAB lead up and Ed ratings boost in latest Ipsos-MORI phone poll

Comments 0 Comment

Via @politicalpics Is this what we should be expecting? pic.twitter.com/Ne7C1wTMbh — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 16, 2015 Ipsos-MORI has LAB lead at 2 Lab 35 (+1), Con 33 (nc), Ukip 10 (-3), Green 8 (+2), LD 7 (-1) http://t.co/zogd88r0Fx — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 16, 2015 The main Ipsos-MORI satisfaction ratings which it had been polling for 40 years pic.twitter.com/Z0cQLdcgjf — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 16, 2015 After the debate about phone polls and internet ones today’s Ipsos-MORI survey for…

Read More Read More

The leading academic forecasters gather for the biggest event before May 7th

The leading academic forecasters gather for the biggest event before May 7th

Comments 0 Comment

Hopefully this’ll provide us with further insights It’s an early start for me this morning to get to Westminster for what looks set to be the most important gathering of academic forecasters before the big day. Its being arranged by the Political Studies Association and features just about all the big names and academic forecasting groups. The briefing will cover “Latest national polling; likely distribution of seats; viability of minority government; feasible coalition permutations; likely time needed to form Government;…

Read More Read More

The second big PB GE2015 Commons Seats Prediction Prize Competition:

The second big PB GE2015 Commons Seats Prediction Prize Competition:

Comments 0 Comment

How many seats of the 632 GB seats will each party get In February we ran our first competition using the Nojam.com template. Clearly things have moved on since then and this is the second wave. Entries will close AFTER the debate tomorrow night. I am delighted to announce that Sporting Index, which is sponsoring PB’s General Election coverage, has once again agreed to provide a competition prize of £200, payable into the winner’s SPIN account. If the winner does…

Read More Read More

The 2001 LAB incumbency experience: Can CON expect something similar 3 weeks tomorrow?

The 2001 LAB incumbency experience: Can CON expect something similar 3 weeks tomorrow?

Comments 0 Comment

Might CON first timers hang on like LAB did then Labour returned to power in May 1997 and four years and one month later Tony Blair went to the country to renew his mandate. The outcome was never really in doubt and on the day, as the official record shows above, LAB won on a reduced vote share. Yet this hardly mattered in terms of seats The actual drop in the lead over the Tories was 3.6% yet William Hague’s…

Read More Read More

The marginals down for CON hold are where there’s the least amount of 2010 LD to LAB switching

The marginals down for CON hold are where there’s the least amount of 2010 LD to LAB switching

Comments 0 Comment

Polling analysis: The latest 20 Ashcroft marginal surveys For the past four years my view of GE15 has been that 2010 LD voters in the marginals were likely to be a main driving force. In 2010 they represented nearly one in four of all GB votes. Now the party had been polling only a fraction of that where would those votes move? The biggest group of switchers are those saying they’ve gone to LAB. There are many types and it…

Read More Read More

A great GE15 data resource from AndyJS

A great GE15 data resource from AndyJS

Comments 0 Comment

AndyJS has just finished what looks set to be a great resource for the election. A full candidate database with all those standing in the election which linked to key data about the constituency. You can link to it here. It is an excellent piece of work and will come in useful in the the coming three weeks and a day that remain.