Hopefully this’ll provide us with further insights
Itâ€™s an early start for me this morning to get to Westminster for what looks set to be the most important gathering of academic forecasters before the big day.
Its being arranged by the Political Studies Association and features just about all the big names and academic forecasting groups.
The briefing will cover “Latest national polling; likely distribution of seats; viability of minority government; feasible coalition permutations; likely time needed to form Government; prospects for a second election.”
There will be presentations from some of those who have become public figures in recent weeks as we get nearer to the most unpredictable election in generations. The line-up includes Professor John Curtice (Strathclyde), Professor Will Jennings (Southampton), Professor Paul Whiteley (Essex), Dr Chris Hanretty (East Anglia) Dr Jennifer Hudson (UCL) and Dr Stephen Fisher (Oxford).
Also today we should get the latest phone poll from Ipsos-MORI and this evening we have what’s being described as the “Challengers Debate”.
There is betting on who will win the latter with most bookies settling their markets on a Survation poll that’s been commissioned by the Daily Mirror. I’ve yet to have a punt. My understanding is that there will be a post debate YouGov poll as well.
I expect to be Tweeting throughout the day. Meanwhile the overnight YouGov had:
For fourth consecutive night LAB have lead in YouGov Sun poll
CON 34%, LAB 35%, LD 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 5%
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 15, 2015