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UKIP seats drop to their lowest level yet on the Commons seats spread markets

14/4/2015 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

UKIP now at lowest level yet on the Commons seats spread market from @SportingIndex http://t.co/rSKroIPwt1 pic.twitter.com/mSbrZjmEIZ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 14, 2015 With all the focus being on LAB and CON there’s not been that much attention to the decline of UKIP in the polls. Although this is not universal quite a number of surveys from firms that used to have the best numbers for Farage’s party now have big declines. This is now being reflected on the spread…

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Latest batch of Lord Ashcroft marginals polling is out

14/4/2015 TSE Comments 0 Comment

The latest batch of Lord Ashcroft marginals polling is out. The average swing in these seats is around 3.5%, which contrasts to the 2% found in last week’s batch of marginal polling. But the swing isn’t uniform in these seats, ranging from a 7.5% Con to Lab swing in Crewe & Nantwich and a 3.5% Lab to Con swing in North East Somerset. The Tories might be happy that the Lab gains are within the margin of error. UKIP might…

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Stand by for this morning seat polling from Lord Ashcroft

14/4/2015 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

The marginal seats poll for release 8am tomorrow are Tory held which need a swing to Labour of about 5% to change. Will they be blue or red? — Lord Ashcroft (@LordAshcroft) April 13, 2015 I’m on Radio 4’s Today programme this morning followed by a breakfast briefing on the election so won’t be in a position to report and post on the latest round of Ashcroft seat polling. Above ARE the seats which seem to fit his bill. Mike…

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And as Marf reminds us today was the day when LAB published its manifesto

13/4/2015 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Both the LDs and UKIP jump 3 as CON loses lead with Lord Ashcroft

13/4/2015 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

This puts ICM’s 6% CON lead into context I was driving in thick traffic round the M25 and am only just now catching up with this extraordinary afternoon of polling. Lord Ashcroft, who polls weekly by phone and has a weighting structure not too different from ICM. has a very different picture. Both Ashcroft and ICM had 3% leads in their last surveys yet one moved in one direction and the other moved in another To his great credit ICM…

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ICM 6% CON lead sets the election alight

13/4/2015 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

ICM's CON 6% lead will bring LAB down to earth pic.twitter.com/DmRe2JAMmF — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 13, 2015 Will the @LordAshcroft phone poll, due at 4pm support ICM? They broadly similar approaches and ICM often carries out the Lord A fieldwork — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 13, 2015 A good showing for the blues from Lord A, which, last had them 3% ahead, would totally change the election narrative. If not – an outlier — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 13,…

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Looks like LAB is preparing for LD coalition negotiations

13/4/2015 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

RT @philipjcowley: "Labour will replace the House of Lords with a Senate of the Nations and Regions" (p.69). Good luck with that one… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 13, 2015 @PolProfSteve @MSmithsonPB But having been burnt on it last time, there is no way a mere aspiration will do this time for the LDs. — Philip Cowley (@philipjcowley) April 13, 2015

NHS polling blow for the Cameron and Osborne following the Â£8bn extra funding pledge

13/4/2015 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

YouGov/Times poll finds 43% saying NHS would get worse under CON compared with 25% under LAB. Fieldwork after the Tory £8bn extra pledge — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 13, 2015 The latest YouGov Sun poll sees LAB move to a 3% lead CON 33 (-1) LAB 36 (+2) LD 7 (=) UKIP 13 (=) GRN 5 (-1) — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 13, 2015 But could it take a few days to get through? First reaction to the Tory big…

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