Tories double their lead with Opinium to 4% – Update but YouGov has Lab 3% ahead
Opinium/Observer fieldwork began just before the debate with “most” responses after it. So the move might reflect it, but all usual caveats
— Matt Singh NCP (@MattSingh_) April 18, 2015
The fieldwork started just before Thursday’s debate with most responses after it, tonight’s YouGov which should be out later, was entirely after the debate.
This is essentially margin of error changes, but like yesterday’s Survation, it should be heartening for the Tories, especially with the England only polling, it might also suggest that ICM wasn’t so much of an outlier, as ever we need more polling. UKIP will be delighted to be up 2% following last year’s four year low with Opinium.
ENGLAND ONLY shares in latest Opinium poll has CON 38 LAB 32 LD 9 UKIP 14 GRN 6 A 2.5% CON to LAB swing since 2010
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 18, 2015
On the leader ratings
Latest @OpiniumResearch leader ratings pic.twitter.com/80G1x4r4pI
— TSE (@TSEofPB) April 18, 2015
Apart from the YouGov, I’m expecting the ICM Wisdom Index tonight, I’ll update this thread as we get more polling.
TSE
YouGov for Sunday Times Lab 36% Con 33% Ukip 13% Lib Dem 8% Green 5% Leader net approval Cameron 0 Miliband -18 Clegg -36
— Tim Shipman (@ShippersUnbound) April 18, 2015
YouGov and Opinium do agree precisely on Ukip, Lib Dems and Greens. Which is something
— Tim Shipman (@ShippersUnbound) April 18, 2015
Cameron, Clegg and Miliband personal ratings are all up. But Miliband has climbed most. Now -18. A month ago that was -39. Cam up just 5 pts
— Tim Shipman (@ShippersUnbound) April 18, 2015
Correction Full ICM Wisdom Index Con 32 Lab 32 LD 14 UKIP 12
— TSE (@TSEofPB) April 18, 2015
However, it found that Lab supporters are more optimistic than people who backed the Cons in 2010 about their party’s prospects next month.
— TSE (@TSEofPB) April 18, 2015