With so much potential tactical voting the overall national party vote shares won’t mean as much

With so much potential tactical voting the overall national party vote shares won’t mean as much

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Tomorrow is about seats not national vote totals There’s lots of talk at the moment about the electoral “system being bust” and “no longer fit for purpose”. What is being pointed to are possible disparities between national aggregate vote shares and the total of MPs each party ends up with on Friday morning. Yet as we’ve seen strikingly in Monday’s ICM Hallam poll or last week’s Ashcroft survey in Jim Murphy’s Renfrewshire East a very large slab of electors on…

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Two new polls have the battle very tight

Two new polls have the battle very tight

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To recap 1 online pollster LAB lead 1% 3 online pollsters level pegging 2 phone pollster CON leads 2% & 3% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 5, 2015 Survation Mirror poll with changes on previous survey for paper LAB 34% (NC); CON 33% (NC); UKIP 16% (NC); LD 9% (NC); GRE 4% (+1) — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 5, 2015 Survation Mirror Ballot Prompt voting responses where seat specific ballot papers shownCON 31%LAB 32%LD 10%UKIP 15%GREEN 5%SNP 4% — Mike Smithson…

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Two polls so far – Populus remains level pegging while CON Ashcroft lead falls back 4

Two polls so far – Populus remains level pegging while CON Ashcroft lead falls back 4

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The signs start going up pic.twitter.com/xqrNRNCR60 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 5, 2015 @LordAshcroft final poll detailsCON 32%, LAB 30%, LDEM 11%, UKIP 12%, GRN 7% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 5, 2015 I'm told there'll be another Populus poll so latest one wasn't finalCon 34 (+1), Lab 34 (+1), Ukip 13 (-2), LD 10+1 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 5, 2015 Just got back from London where I recorded several TV interviews plus made a contribution to the BBC…

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The YouGov poll at this point in the 2010 race got the CON-LAB margin almost exactly right – should we be expecting the same of the latest poll?

The YouGov poll at this point in the 2010 race got the CON-LAB margin almost exactly right – should we be expecting the same of the latest poll?

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The 2010 YouGov poll two days before GE10 got the LAB CON margin almost spot on. A good precedent for GE15? pic.twitter.com/t7h1G64m3a — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 5, 2015 It’s back to level-pegging in latest poll After a spate of 1% LAB or CON leads the latest YouGov Sun poll breaks the pattern – level peggingCON 33LAB 33 LD 10 UKIP 12GRN 5 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 4, 2015 On Betfair CON most seats is an 82% chance CON…

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Marf’s latest cartoon

Marf’s latest cartoon

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If you would like to purchase one of Marf’s prints or originals, please contact her here. YouGov/Sun poll tonight – Labour and Tories are tied: CON 33%, LAB 33%, LD 10%, UKIP 12%, GRN 5% — Sun Politics (@SunPolitics) May 4, 2015

ICM phone poll naming Clegg has him holding Sheffield Hallam thanks to tactical Tory voters

ICM phone poll naming Clegg has him holding Sheffield Hallam thanks to tactical Tory voters

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The guardian/@ICMResearch Sheffield Hallam poll. Top graphic is naming the candidates. pic.twitter.com/FwwlOWuQ1v — TSE (@TSEofPB) May 4, 2015 ICM have conducted a poll for the Guardian in Sheffield Hallam, seat of Nick Clegg. Nick Clegg is on course to be saved from defeat in his Sheffield Hallam constituency by a tide of tactical Tory votes, according to a special Guardian/ICM poll conducted in the deputy prime minister’s constituency. The poll puts Clegg on 42%, seven points clear of his young…

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