The signs start going up pic.twitter.com/xqrNRNCR60

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 5, 2015

@LordAshcroft final poll details
CON 32%, LAB 30%, LDEM 11%, UKIP 12%, GRN 7%

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 5, 2015

I'm told there'll be another Populus poll so latest one wasn't final
Con 34 (+1), Lab 34 (+1), Ukip 13 (-2), LD 10+1

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 5, 2015

Just got back from London where I recorded several TV interviews plus made a contribution to the BBC News Channel’s prediction round which will be shown tomorrow. Unlike all the others who are participating I was the only one with a LAB lead – albeit of only one seat.

I find it hard to see how the polling swings in England and Wales can be just ignored. In England & Wales in 2010 the Tories were 10.2% ahead of LAB on voters. It is very hard to discount current margins of just one or two.

The groupthink is that universal national swing no longer exists. Clearly you’ve not got to exclude Scotland but I fail to see how you can disregard some of the latest polling numbers.

The assumption appears to be that LAB will put on votes where it doesn’t matter but will do less well where it does. I don’t buy it and there’s precious little supporting evidence.

On top of that this election is so tight that party GOTV ops are going to be critical and by all accounts the red team has more skilled foot-soldiers than the the blue one.

The betting meanwhile sticks with the groupthink.

Mike Smithson

For 11 years viewing politics from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble

For latest polling and political betting news follow @MSmithsonPB