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Survation’s ballot paper voting responses raise questions about incumbency boosts on which the Tories are relying so much

4/5/2015 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Are CON incumbents really going to get a bonus? In its latest poll for the Mail on Sunday Survation added a new dimension – a voting question based on the precise ballot paper that each of the 2100 people sampled will actually fill in on Thursday or have already done so with postal votes. This was an online poll and the replica ballot papers are generated for each participant by their post code. If there is going to be a…

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John Curtice on the exit poll

3/5/2015 TSE Comments 0 Comment

John Curtice on the forthcoming exit poll http://t.co/887u4v1Yw3 pic.twitter.com/jjId8N7T5f — TSE (@TSEofPB) May 3, 2015 Just after 10pm on Thursday, the exit poll for the BBC/ITV/Sky News will be published, at the last two elections, it has been virtually spot on. However this year, it might be more difficult, as they are also going to give UKIP and SNP seat totals as the era of three party politics has come to an end. From the article John Curtice has said…

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Betting on when The Queen will invite someone to form a government

3/5/2015 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Paddy Power have a market up on when Her Majesty will invite someone to form a government.Â Please note the terms of the bet,Â Applies to the date of the Queen’s first invitation to form a government. Person first invited may or may not go on to form a government. Invitation counts even if an exploratory commission is accepted. PP decision final. Following on from this morning’s thread, this year’s Queen Speech is scheduled for the 27th of May, so if…

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Cameron and the post election narrative

3/5/2015 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Finishing behind the Tories in seats and votes could forceÂ Ed Miliband to play the political equivalent of Russian Roulette with a fully loaded gun. Last night, the Tory strategy for Friday morning emerged,Â David Cameron will declare victory on Friday if he has most votes and seats and cast a Labour led government as illegitimate, The Tories will say â€˜Weâ€™re legitimate, weâ€™re the largest party, we should carry on.â€™ If necessary, dare the others to vote down a Conservative government. â€œWeâ€™ll…

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On the day of the royal birth – Marf and the weekend general election polls

2/5/2015 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

First two polls of the night ComRes & Opinium have no change After a CON lead of 1% last week tonight's Opinium/Observer poll hasCON 35LAB 34LD 8UKIP 13GTN 5 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 2, 2015 Tonight’s ComRes phone poll for IoS/S Mirror has with comparisons last Tuesday poll Con 33% -2 Lab 33% -2 LD 8% +1 UKIP 13% +2 GN 7% +1 Views of Ed & Dave from ComRes IoS/S Mirror poll pic.twitter.com/do2qGinzmN — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May…

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Why the 6/4 on LAB in Croydon Central might be a value bet

2/5/2015 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

This pattern doesn’t look right As I’ve said so often what the 2010 LD voters do in the marginals could be absolutely critical in deciding the election. In processing yesterday’s round of CON-LAB marginals from Lord Ashcroft I came across the above apparent oddity in the Croydon Central survey. Its 2010 LD switcher total to the Tories is totally out of line with just about anything we have seen in his constituency polling. In October Lord Ashcroft found a split…

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David Herdson: The election remains far from a foregone conclusion

2/5/2015 David Herdson Comments 0 Comment

Groupthink can be a most dangerous thing. To listen to many commentators, analysts and indeed many politicians, such is the consensus that you might believe that the election was all over and the result in; that result being Con and Lab roughly level, an SNP landslide in Scotland, the Lib Dems parliamentary party halved and UKIP and the Greens failing to register meaningfully. So it might be but we should at least entertain other possibilities. Why has such a consensus…

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The big polling night continues with a Marf cartoon on Ed and the SNP

1/5/2015 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

A couple of surveys at least still to come Tonight we saw the last of Lord Ashcroft constituency polls which have added enormously to this election. All told his polling has covered nearly 250k separate phone interviews which is just colossal. There are some more polls to come tonight. I’m sort of expecting a new ComRes phone poll for the Mail and maybe one more as well as the usual YouGov. Tonight's YouGov/Sun poll: LAB retains its slender 1% lead….

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